New York Knicks at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Miles McBridePoints25
- Josh HartAssists9
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds15
Heat- Norman PowellPoints19
- Davion MitchellAssists5
- Kel'el WareRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–115
- Q40.2Davion Mitchell defensive rebound113–115
- Q43.2Karl-Anthony Towns misses 12-foot two point shot113–115
- Q46.3Karl-Anthony Towns offensive rebound113–115
- Q47.1Miles McBride misses two point shot113–115
- Q47.8Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Kel'el Ware (Miles McBride gains possession)113–115
- Q413.2Knicks offensive team rebound113–115
- Q413.2(00:13.2) [Knicks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)113–115
- Q413.2Kel'el Ware blocks Karl-Anthony Towns 's 5-foot two point shot113–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:03Dru Smith makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)NY 86 – 86 MIA · MIA 37% → 50% +13MIA 37% → 50%+13 pts
- Q410:44Miles McBride makes 25-foot three pointer (Landry Shamet assists)NY 89 – 86 MIA · NY 50% → 63% +13NY 50% → 63%+13 pts
- Q41:07Norman Powell makes 1-foot two point shot (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)NY 110 – 114 MIA · MIA 75% → 91% +16MIA 75% → 91%+16 pts
- Q422.4Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 113 – 114 MIA · NY <1% → 28% +27NY <1% → 28%+27 pts
- Q421.4Davion Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2NY 113 – 115 MIA · MIA 73% → 89% +16MIA 73% → 89%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -1.5
- ML NY -110 / MIA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -1
- MIA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 53.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIA -100
- NY -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 121.5 – 123.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 244.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1591 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −75 | +1 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +27 Elo | MIA 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 54.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30122.1 | Points scored | 125.31st of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 122.225th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.8 | Margin | +3.213th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30119.9 | Offense rating | 115.19th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 112.213th of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.8 | Pace | 107.81st of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–3 | Road vs home | 5–16th of 30 |
| 18th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15186th of 30 |
| 6th of 301591 | Elo rating | 150615th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–4 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–4 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–3 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 6–2 MIA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Nov 14MIA 132 @ NY 140Picked NY 68%Hit
- Oct 26NY 107 @ MIA 115Picked NY 57%Miss
- Mar 17MIA 95 @ NY 116Picked NY 71%Hit
- Mar 2NY 116 @ MIA 112Picked NY 68%Hit
- Oct 30NY 116 @ MIA 107Picked NY 53%Hit
- Apr 2NY 99 @ MIA 109Picked MIA 52%Hit
- Jan 27MIA 109 @ NY 125Picked NY 70%Hit
- Nov 24MIA 98 @ NY 100Picked MIA 52%Miss