Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Peyton WatsonPoints32
- Nikola JokicAssists12
- Peyton WatsonRebounds12
Pelicans- Derik QueenPoints30
- Zion WilliamsonAssists5
- Derik QueenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–118
- Q41.3Jeremiah Fears makes 1-foot layup (Trey Murphy III assists)125–118
- Q46.0Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2125–116
- Q46.0Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2124–116
- Q46.0Jeremiah Fears enters the game for Herbert Jones123–116
- Q46.0Herbert Jones personal foul123–116
- Q48.5Micah Peavy makes 9-foot two point shot123–116
- Q49.3Herbert Jones offensive rebound123–114
- Q412.3Trey Murphy III misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot123–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:34Herbert Jones makes 26-foot three point jumper (Yves Missi assists)DEN 10 – 23 NO · NO 40% → 46% +7NO 40% → 46%+7 pts
- Q15:20Nikola Jokic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 13 – 23 NO · DEN 53% → 60% +7DEN 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q23:40Cameron Johnson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Peyton Watson assists)DEN 48 – 46 NO · DEN 73% → 79% +6DEN 73% → 79%+6 pts
- Q23:29Trey Murphy III makes 30-foot three point jumper (Derik Queen assists)DEN 48 – 49 NO · NO 21% → 28% +6NO 21% → 28%+6 pts
- Q23:02Peyton Watson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 51 – 49 NO · DEN 72% → 79% +7DEN 72% → 79%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -10.5
- ML DEN -600 / NO +400
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -7
- DEN 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- DEN: Elo 75.8%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- DEN -429
- NO +429 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 122.5 – 112.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1647 | 1340 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −47 | +14 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +198 Elo | DEN 75.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 82.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 81.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 81.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30124.6 | Points scored | 108.330th of 30 |
| 6th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 121.924th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+11.9 | Margin | −13.629th of 30 |
| 1st of 30122.0 | Offense rating | 107.526th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 121.028th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30101.3 | Pace | 100.027th of 30 |
| 5th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–822nd of 30 |
| 8th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 1–628th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15373rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301647 | Elo rating | 134027th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–4 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–3 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 6–2 NO in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Oct 29NO 88 @ DEN 122Picked DEN 82%Hit
- Feb 5NO 119 @ DEN 144Picked DEN 82%Hit
- Feb 3NO 113 @ DEN 125Picked DEN 77%Hit
- Dec 22DEN 132 @ NO 129Picked DEN 74%Hit
- Nov 15DEN 94 @ NO 101Picked DEN 55%Miss
- Jan 12NO 113 @ DEN 125Picked DEN 55%Hit
- Nov 17DEN 110 @ NO 115Picked DEN 69%Miss
- Nov 6NO 116 @ DEN 134Picked DEN 76%Hit