Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Josh GiddeyPoints21
- Josh GiddeyAssists6
- Josh GiddeyRebounds14
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints36
- Nikola JokicAssists13
- Nikola JokicRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–127
- Q40.1Nuggets offensive team rebound130–127
- Q41.1Nikola Jokic misses 36-foot three point jumper130–127
- Q41.7Nikola Vucevic personal foul130–127
- Q41.7Kevin Huerter makes free throw 2 of 2130–127
- Q41.7Kevin Huerter makes free throw 1 of 2129–127
- Q41.7Aaron Gordon personal take foul128–127
- Q42.3Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot128–127
- Q411.0Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 2 of 2128–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:43Nikola Jokic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)CHI 118 – 120 DEN · DEN 46% → 77% +31DEN 46% → 77%+31 pts
- Q41:25Kevin Huerter makes 28-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 121 – 120 DEN · CHI 22% → 55% +33CHI 22% → 55%+33 pts
- Q41:04Ayo Dosunmu makes dunkCHI 123 – 120 DEN · CHI 58% → 82% +24CHI 58% → 82%+24 pts
- Q452.6Nikola Jokic makes 8-foot two point shot (Jamal Murray assists)CHI 123 – 122 DEN · DEN 15% → 40% +25DEN 15% → 40%+25 pts
- Q433.4Nikola Vucevic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)CHI 126 – 122 DEN · CHI 65% → 97% +32CHI 65% → 97%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -12.5
- ML CHI +475 / DEN -750
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -7
- DEN 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- DEN: Elo 75.3%, market 83.5%
- Fair odds
- DEN -507
- CHI +507 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 114.5 – 127.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1657 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +17 | −16 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +194 Elo | DEN 75.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 83.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 83.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 83.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30121.0 | Points scored | 124.43rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30121.5 | Points allowed | 111.33rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +13.22nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 122.12nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 109.23rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.9 | Pace | 101.124th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301–5 | Road vs home | 6–01st of 30 |
| 8th of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 149815th of 30 |
| 15th of 301506 | Elo rating | 16572nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–5 | 9–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 9–2 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–4 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–2 DEN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.