Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Matas BuzelisPoints21
- Tre JonesAssists5
- Matas BuzelisRebounds14
Pistons- Paul ReedPoints28
- Daniss JenkinsAssists12
- Paul ReedRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–124
- Q42.7Paul Reed defensive rebound113–124
- Q42.7Patrick Williams misses 26-foot three point jumper113–124
- Q49.4Daniss Jenkins lost ball turnover (Patrick Williams steals)113–124
- Q433.7Dalen Terry bad pass (Daniss Jenkins steals)113–124
- Q441.2Bulls offensive team rebound113–124
- Q442.2Matas Buzelis misses tip shot113–124
- Q443.2Matas Buzelis offensive rebound113–124
- Q444.5Patrick Williams misses 25-foot three point jumper113–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:17Paul Reed makes layup (Caris LeVert assists)CHI 96 – 99 DET · DET 52% → 62% +10DET 52% → 62%+10 pts
- Q46:53Paul Reed makes two point shotCHI 98 – 104 DET · DET 68% → 77% +9DET 68% → 77%+9 pts
- Q45:44Matas Buzelis makes two point shot (Isaac Okoro assists)CHI 102 – 106 DET · CHI 20% → 30% +9CHI 20% → 30%+9 pts
- Q44:50Paul Reed makes 3-foot layup (Daniss Jenkins assists)CHI 102 – 108 DET · DET 72% → 82% +10DET 72% → 82%+10 pts
- Q44:34Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)CHI 102 – 111 DET · DET 83% → 93% +10DET 83% → 93%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -3.5
- ML CHI -150 / DET +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 40%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -0.5
- CHI 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- CHI: Elo 48.7%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- CHI -138
- DET +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 116.5 – 113.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | −67 | CHI: Missing Josh Giddey −40 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DET: Missing Jalen Duren −40 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +9 Elo | DET 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 59.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 118.016th of 30 |
| 20th of 30118.4 | Points allowed | 112.76th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +5.38th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 113.416th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 108.43rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.6 | Pace | 103.210th of 30 |
| 18th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 4–19th of 30 |
| 4th of 301527 | Opponent Elo | 146627th of 30 |
| 13th of 301525 | Elo rating | 154010th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−12 Elo- Josh Giddey sprained right ankle−40 Elo
Pistons
−67 Elo- Jalen Duren sprained right ankle−40 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–3 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 4–5 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Oct 22DET 111 @ CHI 115Picked DET 61%Miss
- Feb 12DET 128 @ CHI 110Picked DET 67%Hit
- Feb 11DET 132 @ CHI 92Picked DET 64%Hit
- Feb 2CHI 119 @ DET 127Picked DET 67%Hit
- Nov 18CHI 122 @ DET 112Picked DET 61%Miss
- Apr 11CHI 127 @ DET 105Picked CHI 66%Hit
- Feb 27DET 105 @ CHI 95Picked CHI 79%Miss
- Nov 12DET 108 @ CHI 119Picked CHI 59%Hit