Chicago Bulls at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints27
- Josh GiddeyAssists13
- Josh GiddeyRebounds13
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints47
- Isaiah CollierAssists9
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds14
Last plays
- 2OT0.0End of Game147–150
- 2OT0.0End of the 2nd Overtime147–150
- 2OT0.0Bulls offensive team rebound147–150
- 2OT0.0Nikola Vucevic misses 28-foot three point jumper147–150
- 2OT0.8Coby White enters the game for Ayo Dosunmu147–150
- 2OT0.8Kevin Huerter enters the game for Patrick Williams147–150
- 2OT0.8Svi Mykhailiuk enters the game for Brice Sensabaugh147–150
- 2OT0.8Bulls Full timeout147–150
- 2OT2.0Keyonte George makes 27-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)147–150
- 2OT8.4Ayo Dosunmu enters the game for Coby White147–147
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q448.3Lauri Markkanen makes 19-foot jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)CHI 125 – 126 UTAH · UTAH 33% → 64% +31UTAH 33% → 64%+31 pts
- Q437.3Josh Giddey makes 10-foot two point shot (Coby White assists)CHI 127 – 126 UTAH · CHI 34% → 69% +35CHI 34% → 69%+35 pts
- OT0.2Coby White makes 6-foot two point shotCHI 136 – 136 UTAH · CHI 0% → 50% +50CHI 0% → 50%+50 pts
- 2OT8.4Coby White makes free throw 2 of 2CHI 147 – 147 UTAH · CHI 17% → 51% +34CHI 17% → 51%+34 pts
- 2OT2.0Keyonte George makes 27-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)CHI 147 – 150 UTAH · UTAH 50% → >99% +50UTAH 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -4.5
- ML CHI -195 / UTAH +165
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -4
- CHI 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- CHI: Elo 66.5%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- CHI -175
- UTAH +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 125.0 – 120.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 245.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1379 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | +8 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +119 Elo | CHI 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 65.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30118.6 | Points scored | 116.318th of 30 |
| 20th of 30118.9 | Points allowed | 121.824th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −5.423rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 111.623rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 116.824th of 30 |
| 9th of 30103.8 | Pace | 103.210th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 21st of 301–4 | Road vs home | 3–318th of 30 |
| 4th of 301528 | Opponent Elo | 151410th of 30 |
| 14th of 301514 | Elo rating | 137926th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–4 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–1 UTAH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.