Indiana Pacers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints27
- Andrew NembhardAssists7
- Isaiah JacksonRebounds10
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints35
- Isaiah CollierAssists11
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–152
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–152
- Q45.7Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound128–152
- Q49.2Ben Sheppard misses 28-foot three point jumper128–152
- Q412.0shot clock turnover128–152
- Q435.8Isaiah Jackson makes two point shot128–152
- Q435.8Isaiah Jackson offensive rebound126–152
- Q439.0Jarace Walker misses 22-foot three point jumper126–152
- Q442.5Isaiah Collier makes two point shot (Brice Sensabaugh assists)126–152
- Q445.5Monte Morris bad pass (Brice Sensabaugh steals)126–150
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:51Lauri Markkanen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)IND 28 – 27 UTAH · UTAH 35% → 42% +7UTAH 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q11:00Brice Sensabaugh makes 29-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)IND 34 – 36 UTAH · UTAH 42% → 49% +7UTAH 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q211:49Pascal Siakam makes 25-foot three point jumper (Monte Morris assists)IND 37 – 38 UTAH · IND 46% → 53% +7IND 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q29:57Ace Bailey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)IND 39 – 43 UTAH · UTAH 47% → 55% +7UTAH 47% → 55%+7 pts
- Q28:54Ace Bailey makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 41 – 46 UTAH · UTAH 50% → 57% +7UTAH 50% → 57%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- IND -2.5
- ML IND -140 / UTAH +120
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -2
- IND 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- IND: Elo 57.1%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- IND -128
- UTAH +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 118.0 – 115.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1366 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −100 | −11 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +50 Elo | IND 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 54.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30107.6 | Points scored | 112.224th of 30 |
| 21st of 30118.7 | Points allowed | 120.125th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−11.1 | Margin | −7.925th of 30 |
| 30th of 30101.1 | Offense rating | 108.426th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 116.024th of 30 |
| 8th of 30104.1 | Pace | 102.416th of 30 |
| 28th of 300–5 | Road vs home | 2–216th of 30 |
| 4th of 301528 | Opponent Elo | 151510th of 30 |
| 14th of 301514 | Elo rating | 136626th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−100 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 3–1 UTAH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.