Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Onyeka OkongwuPoints32
- Jalen JohnsonAssists14
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds18
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints40
- Jusuf NurkicAssists8
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–122
- Q421.5Jalen Johnson defensive rebound132–122
- Q423.6Ace Bailey misses 24-foot three point jumper132–122
- Q426.3Jazz offensive team rebound132–122
- Q426.3Nickeil Alexander-Walker blocks Keyonte George 's 4-foot layup132–122
- Q435.4Onyeka Okongwu traveling132–122
- Q452.3Keyonte George out of bounds lost ball turnover132–122
- Q41:01Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2132–122
- Q41:01Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 2131–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:29Brice Sensabaugh makes 24-foot three point shot (Ace Bailey assists)ATL 108 – 109 UTAH · UTAH 39% → 53% +14UTAH 39% → 53%+14 pts
- Q48:32Onyeka Okongwu makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)ATL 112 – 109 UTAH · ATL 52% → 66% +14ATL 52% → 66%+14 pts
- Q47:48Brice Sensabaugh makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ace Bailey assists)ATL 113 – 112 UTAH · UTAH 29% → 43% +14UTAH 29% → 43%+14 pts
- Q47:30Onyeka Okongwu makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)ATL 116 – 112 UTAH · ATL 57% → 72% +15ATL 57% → 72%+15 pts
- Q45:57Keyonte George makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Isaiah Collier assists)ATL 119 – 118 UTAH · UTAH 26% → 43% +16UTAH 26% → 43%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -1.5
- ML ATL -130 / UTAH +110
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -0.5
- ATL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 52.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -119
- UTAH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 118.0 – 116.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1388 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −12 | +10 | ATL: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −34 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +19 Elo | ATL 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 115.820th of 30 |
| 5th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 120.825th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+3.2 | Margin | −5.022nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 111.623rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 116.424th of 30 |
| 14th of 30102.7 | Pace | 102.713th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 3rd of 305–2 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 30 |
| 14th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 151512th of 30 |
| 13th of 301517 | Elo rating | 138826th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−12 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis rest−34 Elo
Jazz
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–6 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–1 UTAH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.