Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Santi AldamaPoints20
- Vince Williams Jr.Assists6
- Zach EdeyRebounds15
Mavericks- Klay ThompsonPoints22
- Brandon WilliamsAssists4
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–96
- Q40.3Vince Williams Jr. defensive rebound102–96
- Q42.6Naji Marshall misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot102–96
- Q47.0Vince Williams Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2102–96
- Q47.0Vince Williams Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2101–96
- Q47.0Klay Thompson personal take foul100–96
- Q49.5Zach Edey offensive rebound100–96
- Q410.8Cedric Coward misses free throw 2 of 2100–96
- Q410.8Cedric Coward makes free throw 1 of 2100–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:41Cam Spencer makes 26-foot three point jumper (Santi Aldama assists)MEM 92 – 89 DAL · MEM 50% → 72% +21MEM 50% → 72%+21 pts
- Q43:22Klay Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Daniel Gafford assists)MEM 92 – 92 DAL · DAL 28% → 50% +22DAL 28% → 50%+22 pts
- Q41:33Cam Spencer makes 12-foot driving floating jump shotMEM 96 – 94 DAL · MEM 50% → 72% +22MEM 50% → 72%+22 pts
- Q41:10Daniel Gafford makes driving layup (Naji Marshall assists)MEM 96 – 96 DAL · DAL 25% → 50% +25DAL 25% → 50%+25 pts
- Q458.0Santi Aldama makes 2-foot layup (Cam Spencer assists)MEM 98 – 96 DAL · MEM 50% → 77% +27MEM 50% → 77%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -1.5
- ML MEM -115 / DAL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -1
- MEM 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- MEM: Elo 54.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MEM -104
- DAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 114.0 – 115.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −78 | −34 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +29 Elo | MEM 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 52.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 110.827th of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 116.817th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−5.0 | Margin | −6.124th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 103.930th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 109.64th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.9 | Pace | 104.64th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–719th of 30 |
| 24th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 4–824th of 30 |
| 4th of 301533 | Opponent Elo | 148322nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301479 | Elo rating | 141024th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–11 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 1–9 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 5–11 | 6–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 6–3 DAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Nov 7DAL 104 @ MEM 118Picked MEM 61%Hit
- Apr 13DAL 97 @ MEM 132Picked DAL 55%Miss
- Mar 7MEM 122 @ DAL 111Picked MEM 78%Hit
- Jan 6DAL 104 @ MEM 119Picked MEM 62%Hit
- Dec 3MEM 116 @ DAL 121Picked DAL 63%Hit
- Jan 9MEM 120 @ DAL 103Picked DAL 74%Miss
- Dec 11DAL 120 @ MEM 113Picked DAL 60%Hit
- Dec 1MEM 108 @ DAL 94Picked DAL 64%Miss