Memphis Grizzlies at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points18
- Santi AldamaAssists4
- Santi AldamaRebounds6
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints24
- Payton PritchardAssists9
- Neemias QuetaRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–131
- Q415.3Chris Boucher defensive rebound95–131
- Q415.3PJ Hall misses free throw 1 of 195–131
- Q415.3Jordan Walsh shooting foul95–131
- Q415.3PJ Hall makes 6-foot two point shot (GG Jackson assists)95–131
- Q430.7Ron Harper Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Minott assists)93–131
- Q446.8Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes free throw 2 of 293–128
- Q446.8Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes free throw 1 of 292–128
- Q446.8Ron Harper Jr. shooting foul91–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:20Vince Williams Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jock Landale assists)MEM 3 – 4 BOS · MEM 22% → 27% +5MEM 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q19:29Payton Pritchard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)MEM 5 – 9 BOS · BOS 73% → 78% +5BOS 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q17:56Derrick White makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Neemias Queta assists)MEM 8 – 16 BOS · BOS 79% → 84% +4BOS 79% → 84%+4 pts
- Q130.6Luka Garza makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)MEM 26 – 34 BOS · BOS 79% → 84% +5BOS 79% → 84%+5 pts
- Q27:21Payton Pritchard makes 25-foot three pointer (Neemias Queta assists)MEM 34 – 42 BOS · BOS 78% → 84% +5BOS 78% → 84%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -8.5
- ML MEM +240 / BOS -290
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6
- BOS 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 72.2%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -253
- MEM +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 110.0 – 118.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1598 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | BOS and MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −78 | −64 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +165 Elo | BOS 72.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 72.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 72.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30114.3 | Points scored | 111.825th of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.8 | Points allowed | 109.72nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.6 | Margin | +2.112th of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.1 | Offense rating | 112.919th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 110.87th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.7 | Pace | 99.129th of 30 |
| 20th of 293–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 29 |
| 18th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 2–322nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301525 | Opponent Elo | 147126th of 30 |
| 21st of 301482 | Elo rating | 15985th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–9 | 4–8 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 0–7 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 1–3 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.