Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints24
- Derrick WhiteAssists7
- Neemias QuetaRebounds10
76ers- Justin EdwardsPoints22
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists9
- Andre DrummondRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–102
- Q40.1Celtics offensive team rebound100–102
- Q40.2Neemias Queta misses tip shot100–102
- Q41.0Neemias Queta offensive rebound100–102
- Q41.4Derrick White misses 38-foot three point jumper100–102
- Q48.7Anfernee Simons enters the game for Jordan Walsh100–102
- Q48.7Celtics Full timeout100–102
- Q48.7Kelly Oubre Jr. makes tip shot100–102
- Q48.7Kelly Oubre Jr. offensive rebound100–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:42Justin Edwards makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)BOS 92 – 93 PHI · PHI 36% → 55% +20PHI 36% → 55%+20 pts
- Q42:20VJ Edgecombe makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)BOS 96 – 100 PHI · PHI 58% → 82% +24PHI 58% → 82%+24 pts
- Q41:53Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 99 – 100 PHI · BOS 15% → 40% +25BOS 15% → 40%+25 pts
- Q433.5Jaylen Brown makes free throw 2 of 2BOS 100 – 100 PHI · BOS 32% → 50% +19BOS 32% → 50%+19 pts
- Q48.7Kelly Oubre Jr. makes tip shotBOS 100 – 102 PHI · PHI 50% → 97% +47PHI 50% → 97%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -1.5
- ML BOS -130 / PHI +110
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -2
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 57.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- PHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 116.0 – 114.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1604 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −66 | +16 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +53 Elo | BOS 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 122.44th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30110.4 | Points allowed | 118.520th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.5 | Margin | +3.910th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 116.97th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 113.117th of 30 |
| 29th of 3099.4 | Pace | 103.69th of 30 |
| 11th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 3–213th of 30 |
| 26th of 301469 | Opponent Elo | 147823rd of 30 |
| 4th of 301604 | Elo rating | 143424th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–7 | 9–1 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 6–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–3 PHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Oct 31BOS 109 @ PHI 108Picked BOS 53%Hit
- Oct 22PHI 117 @ BOS 116Picked BOS 63%Miss
- Mar 6PHI 105 @ BOS 123Picked BOS 87%Hit
- Feb 20BOS 124 @ PHI 104Picked BOS 69%Hit
- Feb 2BOS 118 @ PHI 110Picked BOS 83%Hit
- Dec 25PHI 118 @ BOS 114Picked BOS 78%Miss
- Feb 27PHI 99 @ BOS 117Picked BOS 79%Hit
- Dec 1PHI 119 @ BOS 125Picked BOS 68%Hit