Memphis Grizzlies at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points26
- Vince Williams Jr.Assists5
- Santi AldamaRebounds11
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints30
- Donovan MitchellAssists5
- Evan MobleyRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–108
- Q44.5shot clock turnover100–108
- Q426.7Donovan Mitchell defensive rebound100–108
- Q429.1Vince Williams Jr. misses two point shot100–108
- Q438.9Sam Merrill makes two point shot100–108
- Q438.9Sam Merrill offensive rebound100–106
- Q439.7Evan Mobley misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot100–106
- Q457.3Evan Mobley defensive rebound100–106
- Q41:00Evan Mobley blocks Cedric Coward 's 1-foot dunk100–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:10Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)MEM 84 – 74 CLE · MEM 60% → 71% +11MEM 60% → 71%+11 pts
- Q410:07Evan Mobley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sam Merrill assists)MEM 85 – 81 CLE · CLE 34% → 47% +13CLE 34% → 47%+13 pts
- Q47:19Vince Williams Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)MEM 90 – 86 CLE · MEM 42% → 58% +16MEM 42% → 58%+16 pts
- Q46:34Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)MEM 90 – 91 CLE · CLE 51% → 68% +16CLE 51% → 68%+16 pts
- Q45:16Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMEM 92 – 96 CLE · CLE 67% → 82% +15CLE 67% → 82%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -10.5
- ML MEM +380 / CLE -550
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -7.5
- CLE 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 76.3%, market 80.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -406
- MEM +406 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 115.5 – 126.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1601 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −27 | +9 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +203 Elo | CLE 76.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 77.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 76.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 80.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 122.25th of 30 |
| 21st of 30120.7 | Points allowed | 118.218th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−7.9 | Margin | +3.910th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 115.99th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 112.112th of 30 |
| 5th of 30104.3 | Pace | 104.54th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 21st of 301–4 | Road vs home | 4–212th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301533 | Opponent Elo | 149019th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301470 | Elo rating | 16015th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–10 | 4–9 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 0–8 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 0–4 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.