Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints28
- Scottie BarnesAssists8
- Scottie BarnesRebounds10
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints31
- Donovan MitchellAssists6
- Evan MobleyRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–113
- Q46.6shot clock turnover126–113
- Q430.6Thomas Bryant makes 1-foot dunk (Tyrese Proctor assists)126–113
- Q438.4Cavaliers offensive team rebound126–111
- Q438.4Garrett Temple blocks Tyrese Proctor 's 2-foot two point shot126–111
- Q443.4Jamison Battle bad pass (Luke Travers steals)126–111
- Q41:07Tyrese Proctor makes 1-foot two point shot126–111
- Q41:22Ja'Kobe Walter makes 5-foot two point shot (Gradey Dick assists)126–109
- Q41:34Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes free throw 2 of 2124–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:05Sam Merrill makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)TOR 58 – 52 CLE · CLE 39% → 48% +8CLE 39% → 48%+8 pts
- Q36:28Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three pointer (De'Andre Hunter assists)TOR 78 – 68 CLE · CLE 22% → 30% +8CLE 22% → 30%+8 pts
- Q32:20Gradey Dick makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ja'Kobe Walter assists)TOR 87 – 76 CLE · TOR 69% → 78% +9TOR 69% → 78%+9 pts
- Q411:22De'Andre Hunter makes layupTOR 92 – 87 CLE · CLE 31% → 38% +8CLE 31% → 38%+8 pts
- Q48:43Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sam Merrill assists)TOR 102 – 95 CLE · CLE 16% → 26% +10CLE 16% → 26%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -7.5
- ML TOR +210 / CLE -250
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -2.5
- CLE 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 59.7%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -221
- TOR +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 115.0 – 122.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1616 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +92 | +20 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +68 Elo | CLE 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 63.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30119.3 | Points scored | 122.94th of 30 |
| 15th of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 117.619th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.9 | Margin | +5.38th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 116.09th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 111.09th of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.4 | Pace | 105.03rd of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 10th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 4–110th of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 148920th of 30 |
| 21st of 301471 | Elo rating | 16163rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+92 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–5 | 4–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–6 CLE in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Oct 31TOR 112 @ CLE 101Picked CLE 63%Miss
- Feb 12CLE 131 @ TOR 108Picked CLE 85%Hit
- Jan 9TOR 126 @ CLE 132Picked CLE 86%Hit
- Nov 24TOR 108 @ CLE 122Picked CLE 84%Hit
- Oct 23CLE 136 @ TOR 106Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Feb 10CLE 119 @ TOR 95Picked CLE 81%Hit
- Jan 1CLE 121 @ TOR 124Picked TOR 51%Hit
- Nov 26TOR 102 @ CLE 105Picked TOR 51%Miss