Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints25
- RJ BarrettAssists6
- Scottie BarnesRebounds11
Nets- Nic ClaxtonPoints21
- Egor DeminAssists5
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–109
- Q47.3Tyson Etienne makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ben Saraf assists)119–109
- Q419.0Danny Wolf defensive rebound119–106
- Q424.3Jamison Battle misses 19-foot two point shot119–106
- Q446.2Ben Saraf makes two point shot119–106
- Q446.2Ben Saraf offensive rebound119–104
- Q448.5Tyson Etienne misses 23-foot three point jumper119–104
- Q41:05shot clock turnover119–104
- Q41:05Raptors offensive team rebound119–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:38Ja'Kobe Walter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)TOR 18 – 23 BKN · TOR 61% → 68% +6TOR 61% → 68%+6 pts
- Q13:04Ja'Kobe Walter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 21 – 26 BKN · TOR 61% → 67% +6TOR 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q145.1Jamison Battle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)TOR 26 – 30 BKN · TOR 62% → 68% +7TOR 62% → 68%+7 pts
- Q49:33Jalen Wilson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)TOR 95 – 89 BKN · BKN 8% → 14% +6BKN 8% → 14%+6 pts
- Q49:10Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Gradey Dick assists)TOR 98 – 89 BKN · TOR 86% → 92% +7TOR 86% → 92%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -9.5
- ML TOR -500 / BKN +360
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -7.5
- TOR 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 76.6%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -383
- BKN +383 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 120.0 – 110.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1334 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +73 | −35 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +206 Elo | TOR 76.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 77.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 77.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 79.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30119.3 | Points scored | 110.026th of 30 |
| 16th of 30117.1 | Points allowed | 125.529th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.2 | Margin | −15.529th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 108.825th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 124.130th of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.8 | Pace | 101.223rd of 30 |
| 10th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 0–529th of 30 |
| 12th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 15207th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301467 | Elo rating | 133428th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | — |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–4 BKN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Apr 6TOR 120 @ BKN 109Picked TOR 55%Hit
- Mar 26TOR 116 @ BKN 86Picked BKN 55%Miss
- Jan 1BKN 113 @ TOR 130Picked TOR 52%Hit
- Dec 19BKN 101 @ TOR 94Picked TOR 54%Miss
- Apr 10TOR 102 @ BKN 106Picked BKN 75%Hit
- Mar 25BKN 96 @ TOR 88Picked BKN 57%Hit
- Feb 22BKN 93 @ TOR 121Picked BKN 52%Miss
- Nov 28TOR 103 @ BKN 115Picked BKN 55%Hit