Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Cedric CowardPoints19
- Vince Williams Jr.Assists9
- Cedric CowardRebounds11
Spurs- De'Aaron FoxPoints26
- Devin VassellAssists5
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–111
- Q414.3Devin Vassell defensive rebound101–111
- Q414.3Jaylen Wells misses 30-foot three point jumper101–111
- Q417.9De'Aaron Fox makes 1-foot dunk (Keldon Johnson assists)101–111
- Q420.2Cedric Coward lost ball turnover (De'Aaron Fox steals)101–109
- Q431.7Keldon Johnson makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Devin Vassell assists)101–109
- Q450.2Cedric Coward bad pass (Devin Vassell steals)101–107
- Q452.6Cam Spencer enters the game for Vince Williams Jr.101–107
- Q452.6Grizzlies Full timeout101–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:26Kelly Olynyk makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)MEM 93 – 95 SA · SA 51% → 68% +16SA 51% → 68%+16 pts
- Q44:01Vince Williams Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Wells assists)MEM 98 – 100 SA · MEM 15% → 31% +16MEM 15% → 31%+16 pts
- Q43:13Cedric Coward makes 25-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)MEM 101 – 100 SA · MEM 30% → 53% +23MEM 30% → 53%+23 pts
- Q42:13Harrison Barnes makes 2-foot two point shotMEM 101 – 102 SA · SA 44% → 63% +19SA 44% → 63%+19 pts
- Q41:34Harrison Barnes makes 9-foot two point shotMEM 101 – 104 SA · SA 65% → 83% +18SA 65% → 83%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SA -6.5
- ML MEM +200 / SA -240
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5.5
- SA 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- SA: Elo 71.4%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- SA -212
- MEM +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 114.0 – 120.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −73 | +19 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +159 Elo | SA 71.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 70.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.9 | Points scored | 118.814th of 30 |
| 21st of 30119.8 | Points allowed | 112.13rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−7.9 | Margin | +6.75th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.1 | Offense rating | 116.28th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 109.73rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30104.4 | Pace | 101.422nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–412th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301–5 | Road vs home | 6–29th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301541 | Opponent Elo | 147626th of 30 |
| 21st of 301466 | Elo rating | 149617th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–10 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 1–8 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–9 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 6–2 SA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Mar 1SA 130 @ MEM 128Picked MEM 65%Miss
- Feb 3SA 109 @ MEM 128Picked MEM 59%Hit
- Jan 17MEM 140 @ SA 112Picked SA 53%Miss
- Jan 15MEM 129 @ SA 115Picked MEM 56%Hit
- Apr 9SA 102 @ MEM 87Picked MEM 56%Miss
- Mar 22MEM 99 @ SA 97Picked SA 58%Miss
- Jan 2SA 98 @ MEM 106Picked MEM 63%Hit
- Nov 18MEM 120 @ SA 108Picked MEM 56%Hit