Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints27
- Russell WestbrookAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds13
Spurs- De'Aaron FoxPoints28
- De'Aaron FoxAssists11
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–123
- Q42.7shot clock turnover110–123
- Q428.6Keldon Johnson defensive rebound110–123
- Q430.6Russell Westbrook misses free throw 2 of 2110–123
- Q430.6Kings offensive team rebound110–123
- Q430.6Russell Westbrook misses free throw 1 of 2110–123
- Q430.6Keldon Johnson shooting foul110–123
- Q433.0Russell Westbrook offensive rebound110–123
- Q436.0Luke Kornet blocks Dennis Schroder 's 27-foot three point pullup jump shot110–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:37Stephon Castle makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luke Kornet assists)SAC 4 – 5 SA · SA 64% → 70% +6SA 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q110:06Harrison Barnes makes 27-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SAC 4 – 8 SA · SA 69% → 75% +5SA 69% → 75%+5 pts
- Q19:22De'Aaron Fox makes 27-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)SAC 6 – 11 SA · SA 71% → 76% +5SA 71% → 76%+5 pts
- Q46:01Russell Westbrook makes 22-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)SAC 101 – 107 SA · SAC 7% → 15% +8SAC 7% → 15%+8 pts
- Q45:18Harrison Barnes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)SAC 101 – 110 SA · SA 86% → 94% +8SA 86% → 94%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SA -6.5
- ML SAC +200 / SA -240
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5
- SA 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- SA: Elo 69.5%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- SA -212
- SAC +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 118.5 – 125.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −36 | +18 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +143 Elo | SA 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 68.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.2 | Points scored | 118.414th of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.5 | Points allowed | 112.35th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−11.3 | Margin | +6.25th of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.6 | Offense rating | 115.88th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.5 | Defense rating | 109.86th of 30 |
| 8th of 30104.1 | Pace | 101.421st of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301–5 | Road vs home | 5–210th of 30 |
| 1st of 301581 | Opponent Elo | 147924th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301437 | Elo rating | 148919th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–9 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 3–7 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 5–2 SA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.