Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints26
- Dennis SchroderAssists6
- Russell WestbrookRebounds7
Grizzlies- Santi AldamaPoints29
- Vince Williams Jr.Assists15
- GG JacksonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–137
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–137
- Q40.8shot clock turnover96–137
- Q424.8Maxime Raynaud makes 8-foot two point shot (Nique Clifford assists)96–137
- Q436.4Keegan Murray defensive rebound94–137
- Q439.0GG Jackson misses 23-foot three point jumper94–137
- Q459.4Nique Clifford makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Keegan Murray assists)94–137
- Q41:12Kings defensive team rebound91–137
- Q41:12Cam Spencer misses 22-foot three point jumper91–137
- Q41:37Nique Clifford makes free throw 2 of 291–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:16Zach Edey makes 24-foot three point shot (Jaylen Wells assists)SAC 3 – 5 MEM · MEM 55% → 61% +6MEM 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q18:45Cedric Coward makes 25-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)SAC 5 – 10 MEM · MEM 61% → 67% +6MEM 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q17:12Drew Eubanks makes 23-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)SAC 10 – 15 MEM · SAC 27% → 33% +6SAC 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q16:54Santi Aldama makes 23-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)SAC 10 – 18 MEM · MEM 67% → 73% +6MEM 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q11:24Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 25-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)SAC 22 – 33 MEM · MEM 74% → 79% +5MEM 74% → 79%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -3.5
- ML SAC +125 / MEM -145
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -3.5
- MEM 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- MEM: Elo 63.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- MEM -133
- SAC +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 115.5 – 119.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −87 | −99 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +96 Elo | MEM 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 64.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.0 | Points scored | 111.125th of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.6 | Points allowed | 119.220th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−11.6 | Margin | −8.125th of 30 |
| 26th of 30107.7 | Offense rating | 106.827th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.9 | Defense rating | 114.519th of 30 |
| 9th of 30103.8 | Pace | 104.08th of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–8 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–7 | Road vs home | 3–522nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301586 | Opponent Elo | 15413rd of 30 |
| 24th of 301428 | Elo rating | 146121st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−87 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−99 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–10 | 4–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 4–8 | 1–9 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 5–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 5–1 MEM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.