Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Dennis SchroderPoints21
- Russell WestbrookAssists6
- Russell WestbrookRebounds11
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints33
- Ajay MitchellAssists6
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–113
- Q412.5Isaiah Joe defensive rebound99–113
- Q415.2Precious Achiuwa misses driving floating jump shot99–113
- Q424.3Chris Youngblood makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)99–113
- Q435.8Isaiah Joe defensive rebound99–110
- Q437.8Precious Achiuwa misses free throw 2 of 299–110
- Q437.8Precious Achiuwa makes free throw 1 of 299–110
- Q437.8Branden Carlson personal foul98–110
- Q445.5Keon Ellis defensive rebound98–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:51Cason Wallace makes 22-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)SAC 27 – 30 OKC · OKC 90% → 93% +3OKC 90% → 93%+3 pts
- Q210:27Dennis Schroder makes 23-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)SAC 30 – 30 OKC · SAC 7% → 10% +3SAC 7% → 10%+3 pts
- Q27:52Precious Achiuwa makes 25-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)SAC 36 – 38 OKC · SAC 6% → 9% +3SAC 6% → 9%+3 pts
- Q23:07Dennis Schroder makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)SAC 48 – 50 OKC · SAC 7% → 10% +3SAC 7% → 10%+3 pts
- Q35:56Malik Monk makes 24-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)SAC 61 – 67 OKC · SAC 5% → 8% +3SAC 5% → 8%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 93%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -18.5
- ML SAC +1300 / OKC -4000
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 91%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -14
- OKC 90%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- OKC: Elo 90.3%, market 93.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -1366
- SAC +1366 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 106.5 – 125.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1720 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −80 | −17 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +388 Elo | OKC 90.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 90.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 90.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 93.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30112.9 | Points scored | 121.94th of 30 |
| 28th of 30124.4 | Points allowed | 106.41st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−11.4 | Margin | +15.51st of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.6 | Offense rating | 117.64th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.6 | Defense rating | 102.71st of 30 |
| 9th of 30103.9 | Pace | 100.825th of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–8 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301–6 | Road vs home | 6–01st of 30 |
| 1st of 301575 | Opponent Elo | 144430th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301430 | Elo rating | 17201st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−80 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–10 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 8–7 |
| Underdog | 3–8 | — |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–7 OKC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Nov 7OKC 132 @ SAC 101Picked OKC 83%Hit
- Oct 28SAC 101 @ OKC 107Picked OKC 77%Hit
- Mar 25OKC 121 @ SAC 105Picked OKC 74%Hit
- Feb 1SAC 110 @ OKC 144Picked OKC 70%Hit
- Nov 25OKC 130 @ SAC 109Picked OKC 57%Hit
- Apr 9SAC 105 @ OKC 112Picked OKC 65%Hit
- Feb 11SAC 113 @ OKC 127Picked OKC 57%Hit
- Dec 14OKC 123 @ SAC 128Picked OKC 54%Miss