Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Kristaps PorzingisPoints30
- Jalen JohnsonAssists9
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds11
Pelicans- Derik QueenPoints20
- Saddiq BeyAssists5
- Saddiq BeyRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–98
- Q48.1Derik Queen makes dunk115–98
- Q410.5Vit Krejci lost ball turnover (Derik Queen steals)115–96
- Q431.5Caleb Houstan defensive rebound115–96
- Q435.3Jacob Toppin blocks Jeremiah Fears 's 3-foot driving layup115–96
- Q442.5Caleb Houstan makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jacob Toppin assists)115–96
- Q456.2Bryce McGowens makes free throw 2 of 2112–96
- Q456.2Bryce McGowens makes free throw 1 of 2112–95
- Q456.2Asa Newell shooting foul112–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:34Mouhamed Gueye makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kristaps Porzingis assists)ATL 16 – 18 NO · ATL 67% → 73% +6ATL 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q11:14Jordan Hawkins makes 22-foot three point jumper (Yves Missi assists)ATL 16 – 21 NO · NO 27% → 34% +6NO 27% → 34%+6 pts
- Q125.7Luke Kennard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kristaps Porzingis assists)ATL 21 – 23 NO · ATL 66% → 72% +6ATL 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q29:12Jose Alvarado makes 22-foot three point shot (Trey Murphy III assists)ATL 25 – 32 NO · NO 33% → 40% +7NO 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q27:23Jalen Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)ATL 30 – 32 NO · ATL 63% → 70% +7ATL 63% → 70%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -9.5
- ML ATL -500 / NO +360
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -8.5
- ATL 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 80.2%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -383
- NO +383 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 121.0 – 111.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1332 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +25 | −33 | ATL: Missing Onyeka Okongwu −18 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +243 Elo | ATL 80.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 78.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 78.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 79.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 109.330th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 121.824th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+2.1 | Margin | −12.527th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 107.726th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 120.128th of 30 |
| 11th of 30103.1 | Pace | 100.826th of 30 |
| 13th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–824th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Road vs home | 1–728th of 30 |
| 10th of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 15392nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301514 | Elo rating | 133228th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+25 Elo- Onyeka Okongwu left ankle injury−18 Elo
Pelicans
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–8 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–1 NO in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.