Atlanta Hawks at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints38
- Jalen JohnsonAssists7
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds12
Spurs- De'Aaron FoxPoints26
- De'Aaron FoxAssists9
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–135
- Q412.8shot clock turnover126–135
- Q437.6Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 26-foot three pointer126–135
- Q445.7De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 2123–135
- Q445.7De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 1 of 2123–134
- Q445.7Jalen Johnson personal take foul123–133
- Q446.9Jalen Johnson makes 1-foot two point shot123–133
- Q456.4Keldon Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2121–133
- Q456.4Spurs offensive team rebound121–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:01Keaton Wallace makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)ATL 92 – 92 SA · ATL 38% → 50% +12ATL 38% → 50%+12 pts
- Q346.3Julian Champagnie makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)ATL 92 – 95 SA · SA 50% → 62% +12SA 50% → 62%+12 pts
- Q410:12Onyeka Okongwu makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)ATL 99 – 100 SA · ATL 33% → 46% +13ATL 33% → 46%+13 pts
- Q49:04Devin Vassell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jeremy Sochan assists)ATL 101 – 103 SA · SA 45% → 59% +14SA 45% → 59%+14 pts
- Q47:54Julian Champagnie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jeremy Sochan assists)ATL 101 – 108 SA · SA 70% → 82% +12SA 70% → 82%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -1.5
- ML ATL -110 / SA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- SA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- SA: Elo 49.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SA -100
- ATL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 117.5 – 116.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | +17 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +7 Elo | ATL 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 53.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 118.214th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 111.33rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+2.8 | Margin | +6.94th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 115.98th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 109.13rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30103.0 | Pace | 101.324th of 30 |
| 9th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–413th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–2 | Road vs home | 7–29th of 30 |
| 11th of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 147625th of 30 |
| 12th of 301524 | Elo rating | 150118th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–7 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–2 SA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.