Atlanta Hawks at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Onyeka OkongwuPoints27
- Dyson DanielsAssists12
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds10
Suns- Dillon BrooksPoints34
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Collin GillespieRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–122
- Q40.1Suns offensive team rebound124–122
- Q41.1Royce O'Neale misses heave jump shot124–122
- Q41.3Royce O'Neale defensive rebound124–122
- Q43.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses free throw 2 of 2124–122
- Q43.1Dillon Brooks enters the game for Ryan Dunn124–122
- Q43.1Dyson Daniels enters the game for Luke Kennard124–122
- Q43.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 2124–122
- Q43.1Jordan Goodwin personal take foul123–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:45Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 9-foot two point shot (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 115 – 116 PHX · ATL 20% → 39% +18ATL 20% → 39%+18 pts
- Q41:16Onyeka Okongwu makes alley oop dunk shot (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 117 – 116 PHX · ATL 37% → 62% +25ATL 37% → 62%+25 pts
- Q41:06Dillon Brooks makes driving layup (Collin Gillespie assists)ATL 117 – 118 PHX · PHX 37% → 64% +27PHX 37% → 64%+27 pts
- Q454.7Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes driving layupATL 119 – 118 PHX · ATL 35% → 64% +29ATL 35% → 64%+29 pts
- Q411.5Devin Booker makes driving layupATL 121 – 120 PHX · PHX <1% → 21% +20PHX <1% → 21%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -1.5
- ML ATL +100 / PHX -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -1
- PHX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- PHX: Elo 54.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PHX -109
- ATL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 112.5 – 114.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | −24 | ATL: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −34 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +28 Elo | PHX 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 56.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 118.513th of 30 |
| 7th of 30113.4 | Points allowed | 113.68th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+3.7 | Margin | +4.97th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 116.28th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 111.412th of 30 |
| 11th of 30103.2 | Pace | 101.222nd of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–2 | Road vs home | 6–15th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 146629th of 30 |
| 12th of 301527 | Elo rating | 154011th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−4 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis right knee soreness−34 Elo
Suns
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–6 | 9–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 6–0 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–2 PHX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.