Indiana Pacers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Andrew NembhardPoints21
- Andrew NembhardAssists8
- Jeremiah Robinson-EarlRebounds7
Suns- Devin BookerPoints33
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Jordan GoodwinRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–133
- Q421.8Jordan Goodwin defensive rebound98–133
- Q424.8Taelon Peter misses 29-foot three point jumper98–133
- Q445.3Khaman Maluach turnover98–133
- Q445.3Khaman Maluach offensive foul98–133
- Q451.8Rasheer Fleming offensive rebound98–133
- Q455.4Nigel Hayes-Davis misses 26-foot three point jumper98–133
- Q41:09RayJ Dennis makes 26-foot three point shot (Ben Sheppard assists)98–133
- Q41:12Ben Sheppard defensive rebound95–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:37Andrew Nembhard makes 31-foot three point step back jumpshot (Aaron Nesmith assists)IND 11 – 8 PHX · IND 40% → 46% +6IND 40% → 46%+6 pts
- Q17:54Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)IND 13 – 11 PHX · PHX 49% → 56% +6PHX 49% → 56%+6 pts
- Q14:40Dillon Brooks makes 28-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)IND 19 – 20 PHX · PHX 55% → 62% +7PHX 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q24:21Aaron Nesmith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 47 – 55 PHX · IND 17% → 23% +6IND 17% → 23%+6 pts
- Q23:19Ryan Dunn makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)IND 49 – 60 PHX · PHX 78% → 83% +6PHX 78% → 83%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -3.5
- ML IND +145 / PHX -170
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -2
- PHX 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- PHX: Elo 58.5%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- PHX -154
- IND +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 115.0 – 118.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −82 | −48 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +60 Elo | PHX 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 57.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30109.5 | Points scored | 117.316th of 30 |
| 27th of 30121.7 | Points allowed | 114.910th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−12.3 | Margin | +2.414th of 30 |
| 30th of 30102.9 | Offense rating | 114.613th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 112.214th of 30 |
| 6th of 30104.3 | Pace | 101.521st of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 28th of 300–6 | Road vs home | 5–15th of 30 |
| 9th of 301519 | Opponent Elo | 146728th of 30 |
| 18th of 301491 | Elo rating | 152012th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−82 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–6 | 8–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 5–0 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 3–8 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 3–1 PHX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.