Detroit Pistons at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints25
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Isaiah StewartRebounds9
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints25
- Jalen JohnsonAssists9
- Mouhamed GueyeRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–112
- Q46.4Jalen Johnson bad pass (Jalen Duren steals)120–112
- Q412.1Jalen Duren makes free throw 2 of 2120–112
- Q412.1Jalen Duren makes free throw 1 of 2119–112
- Q412.1Mouhamed Gueye personal take foul118–112
- Q412.1Jalen Duren defensive rebound118–112
- Q414.4Jalen Johnson misses 25-foot three point jumper118–112
- Q422.9Jalen Duren makes free throw 2 of 2118–112
- Q422.9Jalen Duren makes free throw 1 of 2117–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:31Jalen Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)DET 99 – 96 ATL · ATL 21% → 34% +13ATL 21% → 34%+13 pts
- Q46:50Dyson Daniels makes 4-foot layup (Onyeka Okongwu assists)DET 99 – 98 ATL · ATL 33% → 44% +11ATL 33% → 44%+11 pts
- Q46:07Daniss Jenkins makes dunkDET 101 – 98 ATL · DET 57% → 68% +11DET 57% → 68%+11 pts
- Q45:24Duncan Robinson makes driving layup (Daniss Jenkins assists)DET 103 – 98 ATL · DET 69% → 79% +10DET 69% → 79%+10 pts
- Q41:20Cade Cunningham makes 11-foot pullup jump shotDET 110 – 106 ATL · DET 74% → 90% +16DET 74% → 90%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DET -1.5
- ML DET -120 / ATL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -0.5
- DET 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- DET: Elo 52.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- ATL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 114.0 – 112.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +36 | 0 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Zaccharie Risacher −1 (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | ATL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +15 Elo | DET 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 117.617th of 30 |
| 4th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 114.08th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.6 | Margin | +3.612th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 113.718th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.0 | Defense rating | 110.25th of 30 |
| 12th of 30103.2 | Pace | 103.311th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304–1 | Road vs home | 2–322nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301469 | Opponent Elo | 150712th of 30 |
| 9th of 301563 | Elo rating | 153212th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
0 Elo- Zaccharie Risacher left hip injury−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–4 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–3 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–4 ATL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.