Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints29
- Andrew NembhardAssists4
- Isaiah JacksonRebounds10
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints31
- Daniss JenkinsAssists8
- Jalen DurenRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–127
- Q413.3shot clock turnover112–127
- Q437.7Monte Morris makes driving layup112–127
- Q442.7Pacers defensive team rebound110–127
- Q443.9Isaac Jones misses 24-foot three point jumper110–127
- Q41:01Jarace Walker makes 28-foot three point jumper (Taelon Peter assists)110–127
- Q41:11Isaac Jones makes 2-foot dunk (Chaz Lanier assists)107–127
- Q41:19Wendell Moore Jr. enters the game for Javonte Green107–125
- Q41:19Isaac Jones enters the game for Daniss Jenkins107–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:21Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Duren assists)IND 2 – 3 DET · DET 70% → 76% +5DET 70% → 76%+5 pts
- Q17:59Isaiah Stewart makes 24-foot three point jumper (Daniss Jenkins assists)IND 9 – 12 DET · DET 73% → 78% +5DET 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q17:42Pascal Siakam makes 25-foot three pointer (Bennedict Mathurin assists)IND 12 – 12 DET · IND 22% → 27% +5IND 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q17:00Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ronald Holland II assists)IND 12 – 15 DET · DET 73% → 78% +5DET 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q14:00Jay Huff makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 21 – 22 DET · IND 21% → 26% +5IND 21% → 26%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DET -8.5
- ML IND +270 / DET -340
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -7.5
- DET 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- DET: Elo 76.7%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -286
- IND +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 111.0 – 119.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −92 | −13 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +207 Elo | DET 76.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 70.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 71.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30108.7 | Points scored | 118.216th of 30 |
| 27th of 30123.2 | Points allowed | 112.25th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−14.5 | Margin | +6.06th of 30 |
| 30th of 30102.7 | Offense rating | 113.918th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 108.12nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30104.1 | Pace | 103.112th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 29th of 300–7 | Road vs home | 6–15th of 30 |
| 6th of 301521 | Opponent Elo | 146629th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301466 | Elo rating | 15589th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−92 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–8 | 9–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–9 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 7–1 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Jan 29DET 119 @ IND 133Picked IND 65%Hit
- Jan 16IND 111 @ DET 100Picked IND 53%Hit
- Nov 29DET 130 @ IND 106Picked IND 63%Miss
- Oct 23IND 115 @ DET 109Picked IND 66%Hit
- Mar 20IND 122 @ DET 103Picked IND 61%Hit
- Feb 22DET 115 @ IND 129Picked IND 75%Hit
- Dec 11IND 131 @ DET 123Picked IND 76%Hit
- Nov 24DET 113 @ IND 136Picked IND 76%Hit