Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Jakob PoeltlPoints22
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists7
- Scottie BarnesRebounds11
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints30
- Andrew NembhardAssists5
- Jarace WalkerRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–111
- Q41.9Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound129–111
- Q45.2Jay Huff misses 28-foot three point jumper129–111
- Q421.2Jeremiah Robinson-Earl defensive rebound129–111
- Q422.5Ja'Kobe Walter misses free throw 2 of 2129–111
- Q422.5Ja'Kobe Walter makes free throw 1 of 2129–111
- Q422.5Taelon Peter shooting foul128–111
- Q424.5RayJ Dennis bad pass (Ja'Kobe Walter steals)128–111
- Q431.0Ja'Kobe Walter makes driving layup (Gradey Dick assists)128–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:06Taelon Peter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Jackson assists)TOR 18 – 25 IND · IND 42% → 49% +7IND 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q210:06Pascal Siakam makes 25-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)TOR 33 – 36 IND · IND 35% → 42% +7IND 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q28:31Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot three pointerTOR 38 – 38 IND · TOR 58% → 65% +7TOR 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q28:09Pascal Siakam makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotTOR 38 – 41 IND · IND 35% → 42% +7IND 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q26:42Immanuel Quickley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)TOR 45 – 43 IND · TOR 62% → 69% +7TOR 62% → 69%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -6.5
- ML TOR -240 / IND +200
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -7
- TOR 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 75.3%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -212
- IND +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 121.0 – 114.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +95 | −96 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | IND crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +194 Elo | TOR 75.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 70.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 70.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30119.8 | Points scored | 108.529th of 30 |
| 15th of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 122.727th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+3.8 | Margin | −14.228th of 30 |
| 6th of 30117.1 | Offense rating | 102.730th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 116.123rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30102.1 | Pace | 103.89th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 7th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 1–427th of 30 |
| 13th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15217th of 30 |
| 19th of 301487 | Elo rating | 147221st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+95 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−96 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–5 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 6–6 | 3–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–3 IND in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.