Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints31
- Quentin GrimesAssists5
- Andre DrummondRebounds11
Pistons- Javonte GreenPoints21
- Daniss JenkinsAssists8
- Javonte GreenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–114
- Q41.376ers offensive team rebound105–114
- Q41.3Tyrese Maxey misses running pullup jump shot105–114
- Q43.7Tyrese Maxey defensive rebound105–114
- Q46.9Isaiah Stewart misses 22-foot three point pullup jump shot105–114
- Q412.3Wendell Moore Jr. offensive rebound105–114
- Q415.2Daniss Jenkins misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot105–114
- Q426.3Javonte Green defensive rebound105–114
- Q430.0Quentin Grimes misses two point shot105–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q30.5Daniss Jenkins makes 52-foot three point shot (Ronald Holland II assists)PHI 90 – 88 DET · DET 31% → 43% +12DET 31% → 43%+12 pts
- Q47:20VJ Edgecombe makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 95 – 98 DET · PHI 21% → 34% +13PHI 21% → 34%+13 pts
- Q46:18Daniss Jenkins makes 27-foot three point jumper (Javonte Green assists)PHI 97 – 101 DET · DET 56% → 72% +16DET 56% → 72%+16 pts
- Q44:35Caris LeVert makes 26-foot three pointerPHI 99 – 106 DET · DET 76% → 88% +13DET 76% → 88%+13 pts
- Q43:44Caris LeVert makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 101 – 109 DET · DET 83% → 93% +11DET 83% → 93%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DET -1.5
- ML PHI +100 / DET -120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3
- DET 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.8 pts
- DET: Elo 60.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 114.0 – 115.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | −57 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +77 Elo | DET 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30120.5 | Points scored | 118.514th of 30 |
| 16th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 112.85th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+3.7 | Margin | +5.86th of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 113.818th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 108.32nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.8 | Pace | 103.410th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 8th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 5–16th of 30 |
| 17th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 146927th of 30 |
| 24th of 301439 | Elo rating | 15519th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–1 | 8–4 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 7–0 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–3 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Nov 9DET 111 @ PHI 108Picked DET 64%Hit
- Feb 7PHI 112 @ DET 125Picked PHI 67%Miss
- Nov 30PHI 111 @ DET 96Picked PHI 53%Hit
- Oct 30DET 105 @ PHI 95Picked PHI 62%Miss
- Apr 9DET 102 @ PHI 120Picked PHI 82%Hit
- Dec 15DET 92 @ PHI 124Picked PHI 87%Hit
- Dec 13PHI 129 @ DET 111Picked PHI 80%Hit
- Nov 10PHI 114 @ DET 106Picked PHI 67%Hit