Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints29
- Nikola JokicAssists16
- Nikola JokicRebounds10
Grizzlies- Jock LandalePoints26
- Vince Williams Jr.Assists7
- Jock LandaleRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–115
- Q421.7Cam Spencer makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Wells assists)125–115
- Q429.3Peyton Watson makes 1-foot two point shot (Nikola Jokic assists)125–112
- Q438.6Cameron Johnson defensive rebound123–112
- Q442.4Cedric Coward misses 25-foot three point jumper123–112
- Q444.6Grizzlies Full timeout123–112
- Q444.6Jamal Murray makes dunk (Nikola Jokic assists)123–112
- Q449.7Cameron Johnson defensive rebound121–112
- Q451.9Santi Aldama misses 23-foot three point jumper121–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:29Cam Spencer makes 22-foot three point jumper (Santi Aldama assists)DEN 77 – 72 MEM · MEM 15% → 22% +7MEM 15% → 22%+7 pts
- Q34:10Peyton Watson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 80 – 72 MEM · DEN 78% → 85% +7DEN 78% → 85%+7 pts
- Q32:23Peyton Watson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 88 – 79 MEM · DEN 81% → 88% +7DEN 81% → 88%+7 pts
- Q30.1Nikola Jokic makes 39-foot three point jumper (Peyton Watson assists)DEN 93 – 85 MEM · DEN 79% → 86% +8DEN 79% → 86%+8 pts
- Q43:58Nikola Jokic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 111 – 103 MEM · DEN 86% → 95% +9DEN 86% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -6.5
- ML DEN -275 / MEM +225
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -4
- DEN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 66.4%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- DEN -238
- MEM +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 121.0 – 114.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1641 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −39 | −50 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +119 Elo | DEN 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 73.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 72.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30123.8 | Points scored | 112.124th of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 116.517th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+10.0 | Margin | −4.422nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.5 | Offense rating | 108.425th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 112.617th of 30 |
| 24th of 30101.2 | Pace | 103.310th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–719th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–2 | Road vs home | 4–519th of 30 |
| 21st of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 15285th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301641 | Elo rating | 148619th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–6 | 6–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–5 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 2–9 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 5–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 6–1 MEM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.