Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Russell WestbrookPoints21
- Russell WestbrookAssists11
- DeMar DeRozanRebounds7
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints44
- Jamal MurrayAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–123
- Q40.1Nuggets offensive team rebound128–123
- Q41.5Nikola Jokic misses 24-foot three point jumper128–123
- Q46.3DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 2128–123
- Q46.3Precious Achiuwa enters the game for Zach LaVine127–123
- Q46.3Cameron Johnson enters the game for Spencer Jones127–123
- Q46.3DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 2127–123
- Q46.3Jamal Murray personal foul126–123
- Q410.0Dennis Schroder enters the game for Drew Eubanks126–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:32Russell Westbrook makes 24-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)SAC 104 – 98 DEN · SAC 49% → 64% +14SAC 49% → 64%+14 pts
- Q48:10Nikola Jokic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)SAC 104 – 101 DEN · DEN 35% → 50% +15DEN 35% → 50%+15 pts
- Q47:27Keegan Murray makes 26-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)SAC 107 – 101 DEN · SAC 51% → 67% +15SAC 51% → 67%+15 pts
- Q42:54Russell Westbrook makes 23-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)SAC 119 – 112 DEN · SAC 73% → 90% +16SAC 73% → 90%+16 pts
- Q42:34Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)SAC 119 – 115 DEN · DEN 9% → 25% +16DEN 9% → 25%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -11.5
- ML SAC +425 / DEN -650
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -11
- DEN 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 85.0%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- DEN -455
- SAC +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 114.5 – 126.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1657 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −95 | −37 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +301 Elo | DEN 85.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 85.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 85.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30111.0 | Points scored | 123.82nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30124.4 | Points allowed | 112.86th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−13.4 | Margin | +11.02nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 121.51st of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.8 | Defense rating | 110.79th of 30 |
| 9th of 30103.8 | Pace | 101.224th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301–8 | Road vs home | 6–15th of 30 |
| 1st of 301578 | Opponent Elo | 148920th of 30 |
| 24th of 301410 | Elo rating | 16572nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−95 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–11 | 10–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 9–4 |
| Underdog | 4–9 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 3–7 DEN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Nov 11DEN 122 @ SAC 108Picked DEN 76%Hit
- Nov 3SAC 124 @ DEN 130Picked DEN 83%Hit
- Apr 9DEN 124 @ SAC 116Picked DEN 63%Hit
- Mar 5SAC 110 @ DEN 116Picked DEN 74%Hit
- Jan 23SAC 123 @ DEN 132Picked DEN 73%Hit
- Dec 16DEN 130 @ SAC 129Picked SAC 51%Miss
- Feb 28SAC 96 @ DEN 117Picked DEN 65%Hit
- Feb 14SAC 102 @ DEN 98Picked DEN 60%Miss