Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints34
- Jamal MurrayAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds10
Rockets- Reed SheppardPoints27
- Alperen SengunAssists6
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–109
- Q40.0Rockets offensive team rebound112–109
- Q40.0Alperen Sengun misses heave jump shot112–109
- Q42.7Reed Sheppard enters the game for Josh Okogie112–109
- Q42.7Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2112–109
- Q42.7Nikola Jokic makes free throw 1 of 2111–109
- Q42.7Alperen Sengun enters the game for Jabari Smith Jr.110–109
- Q42.7Jabari Smith Jr. personal take foul110–109
- Q45.5Josh Okogie enters the game for Alperen Sengun110–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:09Cameron Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 97 – 96 HOU · DEN 35% → 54% +19DEN 35% → 54%+19 pts
- Q42:53Steven Adams makes tip shotDEN 101 – 99 HOU · HOU 21% → 35% +14HOU 21% → 35%+14 pts
- Q42:30Jamal Murray makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)DEN 103 – 99 HOU · DEN 66% → 81% +15DEN 66% → 81%+15 pts
- Q41:50Amen Thompson makes dunk (Alperen Sengun assists)DEN 103 – 101 HOU · HOU 15% → 31% +16HOU 15% → 31%+16 pts
- Q446.2Jamal Murray makes driving layupDEN 105 – 101 HOU · DEN 79% → 95% +16DEN 79% → 95%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -3.5
- ML DEN +125 / HOU -145
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2
- HOU 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -133
- DEN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 115.5 – 119.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1651 | 1599 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | +55 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +52 Elo | HOU 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30124.6 | Points scored | 123.93rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 112.55th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+11.6 | Margin | +11.43rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.7 | Offense rating | 121.72nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 110.510th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30101.7 | Pace | 99.328th of 30 |
| 5th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 4th of 305–2 | Road vs home | 5–17th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301481 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301651 | Elo rating | 15995th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–5 | 9–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–4 | 8–4 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 10–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 3–4 HOU in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.