Orlando Magic at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints29
- Franz WagnerAssists4
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds6
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints35
- Alperen SengunAssists8
- Steven AdamsRebounds13
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game113–117
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime113–117
- OT0.0Magic offensive team rebound113–117
- OT0.0Desmond Bane misses heave jump shot113–117
- OT1.8Amen Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2113–117
- OT1.8Tristan da Silva enters the game for Jonathan Isaac113–116
- OT1.8Josh Okogie enters the game for Reed Sheppard113–116
- OT1.8Amen Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2113–116
- OT1.8Jett Howard enters the game for Wendell Carter Jr.113–115
- OT1.8Wendell Carter Jr. personal take foul113–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q433.0Wendell Carter Jr. makes 2-foot dunk (Desmond Bane assists)ORL 100 – 97 HOU · ORL 66% → 92% +25ORL 66% → 92%+25 pts
- Q421.9Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three pointerORL 100 – 100 HOU · HOU 4% → 52% +48HOU 4% → 52%+48 pts
- Q41.7Anthony Black makes 5-foot driving dunkORL 102 – 100 HOU · ORL 49% → >99% +51ORL 49% → >99%+51 pts
- Q40.2Alperen Sengun makes 4-foot two point shot (Amen Thompson assists)ORL 102 – 102 HOU · HOU 0% → 50% +50HOU 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT51.8Amen Thompson makes 2-foot dunk (Kevin Durant assists)ORL 110 – 111 HOU · HOU 38% → 68% +30HOU 38% → 68%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -7.5
- ML ORL +250 / HOU -300
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -6
- HOU 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 73.1%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -263
- ORL +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 108.0 – 115.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1585 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | +55 | ORL: Usual rotation · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +174 Elo | HOU 73.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 71.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 72.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 125.51st of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 113.36th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +12.23rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 123.31st of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 111.310th of 30 |
| 16th of 30102.5 | Pace | 99.727th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 11th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 4–19th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 148720th of 30 |
| 16th of 301503 | Elo rating | 15858th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–8 | 8–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 7–3 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–7 | 9–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 1–3 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.