Brooklyn Nets at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points24
- Michael Porter Jr.Assists7
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds11
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints25
- Jalen SuggsAssists6
- Tristan da SilvaRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–105
- Q41.0Nets offensive team rebound98–105
- Q41.0Michael Porter Jr. misses heave jump shot98–105
- Q43.9Michael Porter Jr. defensive rebound98–105
- Q43.9Franz Wagner misses 26-foot three point jumper98–105
- Q410.2Jalen Suggs defensive rebound98–105
- Q413.8Terance Mann misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot98–105
- Q423.2Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 298–105
- Q423.2Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 298–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:06Egor Demin makes 25-foot three pointer (Noah Clowney assists)BKN 92 – 90 ORL · BKN 30% → 48% +18BKN 30% → 48%+18 pts
- Q43:03Jalen Suggs makes 13-foot two point shot (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)BKN 96 – 94 ORL · ORL 29% → 45% +15ORL 29% → 45%+15 pts
- Q42:37Nic Claxton makes driving layupBKN 98 – 94 ORL · BKN 58% → 74% +16BKN 58% → 74%+16 pts
- Q41:49Tristan da Silva makes 26-foot three point jumper (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)BKN 98 – 97 ORL · ORL 20% → 48% +28ORL 20% → 48%+28 pts
- Q41:25Franz Wagner makes 26-foot three point shot (Jalen Suggs assists)BKN 98 – 100 ORL · ORL 45% → 79% +33ORL 45% → 79%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -14.5
- ML BKN +600 / ORL -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -8
- ORL 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- ORL: Elo 79.0%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- ORL -636
- BKN +636 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 105.0 – 119.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1330 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −15 | +10 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +231 Elo | ORL 79.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 84.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 84.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 86.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30109.9 | Points scored | 116.618th of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.9 | Points allowed | 115.112th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−15.0 | Margin | +1.516th of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 113.120th of 30 |
| 30th of 30123.8 | Defense rating | 111.612th of 30 |
| 25th of 30100.9 | Pace | 103.013th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 30 |
| 20th of 301–4 | Road vs home | 3–316th of 30 |
| 12th of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 29th of 301330 | Elo rating | 150016th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–8 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 3–8 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 2–6 ORL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 8.
- Dec 29BKN 101 @ ORL 102Picked ORL 74%Hit
- Dec 1ORL 100 @ BKN 92Picked ORL 70%Hit
- Nov 29ORL 123 @ BKN 100Picked ORL 71%Hit
- Oct 25BKN 101 @ ORL 116Picked ORL 82%Hit
- Mar 13BKN 106 @ ORL 114Picked ORL 66%Hit
- Feb 27BKN 81 @ ORL 108Picked ORL 70%Hit
- Dec 2ORL 101 @ BKN 129Picked BKN 54%Hit
- Nov 14ORL 104 @ BKN 124Picked BKN 53%Hit