Houston Rockets at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints28
- Alperen SengunAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds11
Cavaliers- De'Andre HunterPoints25
- Craig Porter Jr.Assists5
- Craig Porter Jr.Rebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–104
- Q414.0Alperen Sengun defensive rebound114–104
- Q416.7De'Andre Hunter misses 26-foot three point jumper114–104
- Q426.0Jabari Smith Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2114–104
- Q426.0Rockets offensive team rebound113–104
- Q426.0Jabari Smith Jr. misses free throw 1 of 2113–104
- Q426.0Dean Wade personal foul113–104
- Q426.0Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound113–104
- Q426.7Evan Mobley misses 25-foot three point jumper113–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:54Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Craig Porter Jr. assists)HOU 77 – 76 CLE · CLE 32% → 44% +12CLE 32% → 44%+12 pts
- Q49:37Dean Wade makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)HOU 81 – 79 CLE · CLE 27% → 39% +13CLE 27% → 39%+13 pts
- Q49:26Aaron Holiday makes 29-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 84 – 79 CLE · HOU 61% → 73% +13HOU 61% → 73%+13 pts
- Q46:09Donovan Mitchell makes 27-foot three pointerHOU 90 – 88 CLE · CLE 22% → 37% +15CLE 22% → 37%+15 pts
- Q45:51Jabari Smith Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 93 – 88 CLE · HOU 63% → 78% +15HOU 63% → 78%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -1.5
- ML HOU -125 / CLE +105
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1.5
- HOU 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 44.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- CLE +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 117.0 – 115.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1588 | 1611 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +52 | +18 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +37 Elo | CLE 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30124.8 | Points scored | 120.97th of 30 |
| 6th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 116.216th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+11.5 | Margin | +4.710th of 30 |
| 1st of 30122.1 | Offense rating | 114.814th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 110.36th of 30 |
| 28th of 3099.4 | Pace | 104.54th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–38th of 30 |
| 6th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 6–210th of 30 |
| 20th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 149019th of 30 |
| 7th of 301588 | Elo rating | 16114th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–4 | 5–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–4 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 10–2 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–1 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.