Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Ryan RollinsPoints24
- Cole AnthonyAssists8
- Myles TurnerRebounds7
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints37
- Donovan MitchellAssists7
- Dean WadeRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–118
- Q421.0Ryan Rollins makes 1-foot driving dunk106–118
- Q427.7shot clock turnover104–118
- Q450.4Evan Mobley defensive rebound104–118
- Q452.3Gary Trent Jr. misses driving layup104–118
- Q41:00Gary Trent Jr. defensive rebound104–118
- Q41:04Donovan Mitchell misses 29-foot three point step back jumpshot104–118
- Q41:20Dean Wade defensive rebound104–118
- Q41:22Ryan Rollins misses 8-foot two point shot104–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:11Gary Trent Jr. makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Cole Anthony assists)MIL 82 – 81 CLE · MIL 33% → 44% +11MIL 33% → 44%+11 pts
- Q31:16Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumperMIL 84 – 85 CLE · CLE 52% → 63% +12CLE 52% → 63%+12 pts
- Q344.3Lonzo Ball makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Donovan Mitchell assists)MIL 86 – 88 CLE · CLE 56% → 67% +12CLE 56% → 67%+12 pts
- Q410:54AJ Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jericho Sims assists)MIL 91 – 92 CLE · MIL 25% → 37% +12MIL 25% → 37%+12 pts
- Q410:30Craig Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three pointer (Nae'Qwan Tomlin assists)MIL 91 – 95 CLE · CLE 63% → 75% +12CLE 63% → 75%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -5.5
- ML MIL +200 / CLE -240
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -4.5
- CLE 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 67.4%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -212
- MIL +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 115.0 – 120.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1604 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | +11 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +127 Elo | CLE 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 71.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 70.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30118.4 | Points scored | 121.17th of 30 |
| 19th of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 116.917th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +4.211th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 114.814th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 110.810th of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.8 | Pace | 104.63rd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 11th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 5–211th of 30 |
| 26th of 301476 | Opponent Elo | 148821st of 30 |
| 13th of 301518 | Elo rating | 16044th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–7 | 4–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–7 CLE in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Oct 26MIL 113 @ CLE 118Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Mar 9CLE 112 @ MIL 100Picked CLE 70%Hit
- Dec 20MIL 101 @ CLE 124Picked CLE 76%Hit
- Nov 4MIL 114 @ CLE 116Picked CLE 76%Hit
- Nov 2CLE 114 @ MIL 113Picked MIL 54%Miss
- Jan 26CLE 112 @ MIL 100Picked MIL 53%Miss
- Jan 24CLE 116 @ MIL 126Picked MIL 50%Hit
- Jan 17MIL 95 @ CLE 135Picked CLE 67%Hit