Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints41
- Austin ReavesAssists8
- Deandre AytonRebounds10
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints32
- Cole AnthonyAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–95
- Q41.3shot clock turnover119–95
- Q425.4Mark Sears makes driving layup119–95
- Q432.2Nick Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point shot (Dalton Knecht assists)119–93
- Q437.1Mark Sears bad pass (Dalton Knecht steals)116–93
- Q438.4Mark Sears offensive rebound116–93
- Q441.4Andre Jackson Jr. misses 26-foot three point jumper116–93
- Q452.4Dalton Knecht makes 3-foot dunk (Nick Smith Jr. assists)116–93
- Q454.6Andre Jackson Jr. bad pass (Nick Smith Jr. steals)114–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:42AJ Green makes 26-foot three point jumperLAL 7 – 8 MIL · MIL 49% → 55% +7MIL 49% → 55%+7 pts
- Q17:24Luka Doncic makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 10 – 8 MIL · LAL 45% → 51% +7LAL 45% → 51%+7 pts
- Q16:46Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 13 – 8 MIL · LAL 51% → 58% +7LAL 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q135.7Bobby Portis makes 27-foot three pointer (Cole Anthony assists)LAL 28 – 18 MIL · MIL 24% → 30% +6MIL 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q28:00Gary Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)LAL 38 – 29 MIL · MIL 24% → 31% +6MIL 24% → 31%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -1.5
- ML LAL +105 / MIL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -2
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- LAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 114.0 – 115.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MIL and LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −5 | +34 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +50 Elo | MIL 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 120.210th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.9 | Points allowed | 118.819th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.516th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 116.57th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 115.122nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30101.6 | Pace | 102.317th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–2 | Road vs home | 5–210th of 30 |
| 13th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 146926th of 30 |
| 8th of 301565 | Elo rating | 154012th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–4 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–4 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–2 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.