Chicago Bulls at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Ayo DosunmuPoints28
- Tre JonesAssists11
- Josh GiddeyRebounds7
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints29
- Jose AlvaradoAssists8
- Yves MissiRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–143
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–143
- Q410.3Jeremiah Fears makes free throw 2 of 2130–143
- Q410.3Jeremiah Fears makes free throw 1 of 2130–142
- Q410.3Tre Jones personal foul130–141
- Q416.2Saddiq Bey defensive rebound130–141
- Q418.2Tre Jones misses free throw 2 of 2130–141
- Q418.2Tre Jones makes free throw 1 of 2130–141
- Q418.2Jose Alvarado personal foul129–141
- Q428.0shot clock turnover129–141
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:57Jalen Smith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 55 – 63 NO · CHI 31% → 38% +8CHI 31% → 38%+8 pts
- Q22:42Bryce McGowens makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Fears assists)CHI 55 – 66 NO · NO 62% → 69% +8NO 62% → 69%+8 pts
- Q22:11Josh Giddey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 58 – 68 NO · CHI 26% → 33% +7CHI 26% → 33%+7 pts
- Q38:36Coby White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Patrick Williams assists)CHI 72 – 81 NO · CHI 23% → 31% +8CHI 23% → 31%+8 pts
- Q37:21Trey Murphy III makes 26-foot three point jumper (Micah Peavy assists)CHI 76 – 87 NO · NO 67% → 75% +8NO 67% → 75%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -5.5
- ML CHI -195 / NO +165
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -4
- CHI 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- CHI: Elo 65.9%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- CHI -175
- NO +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 124.5 – 119.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1328 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +26 | +42 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +115 Elo | CHI 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 64.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.8 | Points scored | 108.630th of 30 |
| 27th of 30123.1 | Points allowed | 121.424th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−2.3 | Margin | −12.829th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 107.527th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.6 | Defense rating | 120.128th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.1 | Pace | 100.526th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–927th of 30 |
| 17th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 1–828th of 30 |
| 12th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15354th of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Elo rating | 132828th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–8 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–2 NO in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.