Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Kel'el WarePoints20
- Pelle LarssonAssists7
- Kel'el WareRebounds14
Bulls- Ayo DosunmuPoints23
- Josh GiddeyAssists9
- Josh GiddeyRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game143–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter143–107
- Q40.0(00:00) [Heat] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)143–107
- Q40.0Jalen Smith makes layup (Josh Giddey assists)143–107
- Q41.7Josh Giddey offensive rebound143–105
- Q41.7Julian Phillips misses 22-foot three point jumper143–105
- Q46.1Ayo Dosunmu defensive rebound143–105
- Q47.9Kel'el Ware misses 5-foot two point shot143–105
- Q425.5Jevon Carter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)143–105
- Q431.4Kel'el Ware makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Pelle Larsson assists)143–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:00Keshad Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dru Smith assists)MIA 23 – 20 CHI · MIA 45% → 52% +7MIA 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q11:55Dru Smith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Simone Fontecchio assists)MIA 32 – 26 CHI · MIA 52% → 59% +7MIA 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q11:48Jalen Smith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)MIA 32 – 29 CHI · CHI 41% → 48% +7CHI 41% → 48%+7 pts
- Q11:04Jalen Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dalen Terry assists)MIA 34 – 32 CHI · CHI 43% → 50% +7CHI 43% → 50%+7 pts
- Q28:32Kevin Huerter makes 25-foot three pointer (Jalen Smith assists)MIA 42 – 35 CHI · CHI 30% → 37% +7CHI 30% → 37%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -2.5
- ML MIA +115 / CHI -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- CHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- CHI: Elo 50.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CHI -124
- MIA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 124.0 – 126.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 250.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | +21 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | CHI crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +2 Elo | CHI 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30123.6 | Points scored | 121.74th of 30 |
| 21st of 30119.8 | Points allowed | 121.924th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+3.8 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 114.812th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 115.020th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.9 | Pace | 104.44th of 30 |
| 12th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 20th of 302–5 | Road vs home | 5–17th of 30 |
| 5th of 301523 | Opponent Elo | 15226th of 30 |
| 14th of 301517 | Elo rating | 151913th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–5 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–5 CHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.