Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Brandin PodziemskiPoints20
- Pat SpencerAssists13
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds12
Heat- Norman PowellPoints25
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists7
- Kel'el WareRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–110
- Q414.4Moses Moody makes driving layup (Brandin Podziemski assists)96–110
- Q419.1Norman Powell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)94–110
- Q434.6Brandin Podziemski makes alley oop layup (Pat Spencer assists)94–107
- Q440.8Andrew Wiggins makes driving layup (Bam Adebayo assists)92–107
- Q447.4Pat Spencer makes 5-foot pullup jump shot92–105
- Q452.0Pat Spencer offensive rebound90–105
- Q454.4Buddy Hield misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot90–105
- Q41:00Norman Powell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)90–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:50Bam Adebayo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pelle Larsson assists)GS 60 – 62 MIA · MIA 65% → 74% +9MIA 65% → 74%+9 pts
- Q34:44Quinten Post makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)GS 63 – 64 MIA · GS 21% → 29% +8GS 21% → 29%+8 pts
- Q33:30Quinten Post makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)GS 68 – 66 MIA · GS 30% → 40% +10GS 30% → 40%+10 pts
- Q346.2Gui Santos makes 23-foot three point shot (Pat Spencer assists)GS 74 – 69 MIA · GS 42% → 54% +12GS 42% → 54%+12 pts
- Q49:20Buddy Hield makes 24-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)GS 77 – 79 MIA · GS 17% → 28% +11GS 17% → 28%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -10.5
- ML GS +340 / MIA -450
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -5.5
- MIA 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- MIA: Elo 71.6%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -360
- GS +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 112.0 – 122.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −95 | +26 | GS: Missing Jonathan Kuminga −7 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +160 Elo | MIA 71.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 65.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30115.5 | Points scored | 124.62nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 121.523rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +3.112th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 114.315th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 111.514th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.9 | Pace | 108.01st of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 6–15th of 30 |
| 8th of 301518 | Opponent Elo | 15187th of 30 |
| 11th of 301547 | Elo rating | 151015th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−95 Elo- Jonathan Kuminga leg injury−7 Elo
Heat
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–7 | 9–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–5 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 1–3 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.