Golden State Warriors at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints34
- Stephen CurryAssists9
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds7
Magic- Desmond BanePoints23
- Jalen SuggsAssists8
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–121
- Q423.2Brandin Podziemski makes 22-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)113–121
- Q434.5Desmond Bane makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)110–121
- Q449.8Desmond Bane defensive rebound110–118
- Q453.4Jalen Suggs blocks Brandin Podziemski 's 3-foot two point shot110–118
- Q459.3Draymond Green defensive rebound110–118
- Q41:02Desmond Bane misses 20-foot pullup jump shot110–118
- Q41:17Jimmy Butler III makes free throw 2 of 2110–118
- Q41:17Jimmy Butler III makes free throw 1 of 2109–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:06Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)GS 60 – 63 ORL · GS 37% → 45% +8GS 37% → 45%+8 pts
- Q38:11Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point shot (Will Richard assists)GS 70 – 75 ORL · GS 29% → 38% +9GS 29% → 38%+9 pts
- Q37:43Tristan da Silva makes 25-foot three point shot (Jalen Suggs assists)GS 70 – 78 ORL · ORL 63% → 71% +9ORL 63% → 71%+9 pts
- Q47:18Jimmy Butler III makes 1-foot driving dunkGS 98 – 103 ORL · GS 19% → 27% +8GS 19% → 27%+8 pts
- Q46:48Anthony Black makes 2-foot driving dunk (Jalen Suggs assists)GS 98 – 105 ORL · ORL 74% → 82% +8ORL 74% → 82%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- GS -2.5
- ML GS -135 / ORL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -0.5
- GS 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- GS: Elo 52.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- GS -124
- ORL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 113.0 – 110.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | +8 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | GS crossed 1 time zone and ORL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +17 Elo | GS 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 52.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 115.521st of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 114.07th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.7 | Margin | +1.517th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 112.322nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 110.810th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.9 | Pace | 102.017th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 15th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 4–317th of 30 |
| 8th of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 149318th of 30 |
| 10th of 301557 | Elo rating | 150016th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–6 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 10–5 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 4–0 ORL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.