Chicago Bulls at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints27
- Josh GiddeyAssists13
- Nikola VucevicRebounds8
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints33
- Deni AvdijaAssists11
- Donovan ClinganRebounds21
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–121
- Q40.0(00:00) [Bulls] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)122–121
- Q41.0Nikola Vucevic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)122–121
- Q47.2Bulls Full timeout119–121
- Q47.2Deni Avdija personal take foul119–121
- Q48.2Matas Buzelis enters the game for Jalen Smith119–121
- Q48.2Kevin Huerter enters the game for Isaac Okoro119–121
- Q48.2Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Donovan Clingan119–121
- Q48.2Bulls Full timeout119–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:22Deni Avdija makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)CHI 116 – 116 POR · POR 17% → 48% +32POR 17% → 48%+32 pts
- Q447.3Donovan Clingan makes two point shot (Deni Avdija assists)CHI 116 – 118 POR · POR 49% → 78% +30POR 49% → 78%+30 pts
- Q49.1Coby White makes 26-foot three point shot (Matas Buzelis assists)CHI 119 – 120 POR · CHI <1% → 18% +18CHI <1% → 18%+18 pts
- Q48.2Jerami Grant makes free throw 2 of 2CHI 119 – 121 POR · POR 83% → 97% +14POR 83% → 97%+14 pts
- Q41.0Nikola Vucevic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 122 – 121 POR · CHI <1% → >99% +100CHI <1% → >99%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -3.5
- ML CHI -165 / POR +140
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -3
- CHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- CHI: Elo 61.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CHI -149
- POR +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 124.0 – 120.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 244.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +26 | +15 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Jrue Holiday −21, Shaedon Sharpe −9, Robert Williams III −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +81 Elo | CHI 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 56.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30121.7 | Points scored | 120.77th of 30 |
| 24th of 30121.9 | Points allowed | 122.526th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.820th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 113.816th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 115.421st of 30 |
| 8th of 30104.0 | Pace | 105.32nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 18th of 302–5 | Road vs home | 3–320th of 30 |
| 5th of 301528 | Opponent Elo | 15354th of 30 |
| 14th of 301516 | Elo rating | 145022nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+15 Elo- Jrue Holiday right calf strain−21 Elo
- Shaedon Sharpe right calf−9 Elo
- Robert Williams III left knee injury management−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–5 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–4 | 11–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–1 POR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.