Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints19
- Collin GillespieAssists6
- Devin BookerRebounds6
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints29
- Deni AvdijaAssists5
- Donovan ClinganRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–110
- Q410.2shot clock turnover127–110
- Q422.4Jordan Goodwin offensive rebound127–110
- Q429.4Nigel Hayes-Davis misses 1-foot tip shot127–110
- Q430.4Nigel Hayes-Davis offensive rebound127–110
- Q431.8Nigel Hayes-Davis misses 10-foot two point shot127–110
- Q452.8Jordan Goodwin defensive rebound127–110
- Q455.9Yang Hansen misses 27-foot three point jumper127–110
- Q41:06Jamaree Bouyea makes 24-foot three pointer127–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:04Caleb Love makes 29-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)PHX 33 – 29 POR · POR 37% → 43% +7POR 37% → 43%+7 pts
- Q210:25Collin Gillespie makes 26-foot three pointer (Oso Ighodaro assists)PHX 40 – 34 POR · PHX 55% → 62% +7PHX 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q26:11Devin Booker makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Collin Gillespie assists)PHX 49 – 42 POR · PHX 58% → 65% +8PHX 58% → 65%+8 pts
- Q26.1Deni Avdija makes 26-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)PHX 64 – 61 POR · POR 35% → 44% +8POR 35% → 44%+8 pts
- Q311:45Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three point shot (Ryan Dunn assists)PHX 67 – 61 POR · PHX 57% → 65% +9PHX 57% → 65%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- POR -2.5
- ML PHX +105 / POR -125
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -1
- POR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- POR: Elo 54.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- POR -114
- PHX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 116.5 – 119.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −23 | +40 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Damian Lillard −48, Jrue Holiday −20 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +30 Elo | POR 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 57.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 121.56th of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 122.226th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+4.4 | Margin | −0.619th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 114.615th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 115.220th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30101.5 | Pace | 105.12nd of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 17th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 3–216th of 30 |
| 28th of 301468 | Opponent Elo | 15334th of 30 |
| 11th of 301535 | Elo rating | 146720th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+40 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−48 Elo
- Jrue Holiday right calf−20 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–5 | 6–7 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–1 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 10–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 5–3 POR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Feb 3PHX 119 @ POR 121Picked PHX 64%Miss
- Feb 1PHX 108 @ POR 127Picked PHX 64%Miss
- Dec 15POR 109 @ PHX 116Picked PHX 83%Hit
- Nov 2POR 97 @ PHX 103Picked PHX 86%Hit
- Jan 14PHX 127 @ POR 116Picked PHX 67%Hit
- Jan 1POR 88 @ PHX 109Picked PHX 57%Hit
- Dec 19PHX 104 @ POR 109Picked PHX 64%Miss
- Nov 21POR 107 @ PHX 120Picked PHX 76%Hit