Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Cam WhitmorePoints20
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists7
- Kyshawn GeorgeRebounds12
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints28
- Josh GiddeyAssists11
- Nikola VucevicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–121
- Q41.3Bub Carrington enters the game for Corey Kispert120–121
- Q41.3Justin Champagnie enters the game for Bub Carrington120–121
- Q41.3Bilal Coulibaly enters the game for CJ McCollum120–121
- Q41.3Kevin Huerter enters the game for Matas Buzelis120–121
- Q41.3Bulls Full timeout120–121
- Q41.3Kyshawn George out of bounds bad pass turnover120–121
- Q46.1Bub Carrington enters the game for Bilal Coulibaly120–121
- Q46.1Wizards Full timeout120–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:19Nikola Vucevic makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)WSH 110 – 109 CHI · CHI 37% → 56% +18CHI 37% → 56%+18 pts
- Q41:42Kyshawn George makes 24-foot three point jumper (Corey Kispert assists)WSH 118 – 117 CHI · WSH 23% → 54% +31WSH 23% → 54%+31 pts
- Q457.6Coby White makes two point shotWSH 118 – 119 CHI · CHI 41% → 69% +29CHI 41% → 69%+29 pts
- Q437.1Bilal Coulibaly makes driving layup (Alex Sarr assists)WSH 120 – 119 CHI · WSH 29% → 64% +35WSH 29% → 64%+35 pts
- Q434.2Tre Jones makes free throw 1 of 2WSH 120 – 120 CHI · CHI 35% → 54% +19CHI 35% → 54%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -12.5
- ML WSH +425 / CHI -650
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -12.5
- CHI 89%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- CHI: Elo 88.5%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- CHI -455
- WSH +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 116.5 – 129.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 245.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1264 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CHI and WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −29 | +60 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +355 Elo | CHI 88.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 88.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 88.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.5 | Points scored | 120.78th of 30 |
| 30th of 30129.7 | Points allowed | 123.327th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−17.2 | Margin | −2.520th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.6 | Offense rating | 113.420th of 30 |
| 30th of 30122.9 | Defense rating | 115.822nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30104.1 | Pace | 105.03rd of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 3–719th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–8 | Road vs home | 5–29th of 30 |
| 9th of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 15236th of 30 |
| 30th of 301264 | Elo rating | 149418th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–12 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 3–10 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–5 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–5 CHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.