Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points34
- Michael Porter Jr.Assists7
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds9
Wizards- Kyshawn GeorgePoints29
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists5
- Kyshawn GeorgeRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–106
- Q40.7shot clock turnover129–106
- Q425.3Tyson Etienne makes 26-foot three point jumper (Drake Powell assists)129–106
- Q441.6Justin Champagnie makes driving layup126–106
- Q446.9AJ Johnson defensive rebound126–104
- Q450.8E.J. Liddell misses 27-foot three point jumper126–104
- Q41:08Tre Johnson makes two point shot126–104
- Q41:12Tristan Vukcevic defensive rebound126–102
- Q41:14Tyson Etienne misses 25-foot three point jumper126–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:21CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBKN 79 – 72 WSH · WSH 22% → 30% +8WSH 22% → 30%+8 pts
- Q35:03Egor Demin makes 28-foot three pointerBKN 82 – 72 WSH · BKN 70% → 79% +8BKN 70% → 79%+8 pts
- Q34:25CJ McCollum makes 30-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)BKN 82 – 77 WSH · WSH 26% → 36% +9WSH 26% → 36%+9 pts
- Q33:26Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three pointer (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)BKN 85 – 79 WSH · BKN 58% → 68% +10BKN 58% → 68%+10 pts
- Q351.6Tyrese Martin makes 26-foot three point shot (Noah Clowney assists)BKN 92 – 84 WSH · BKN 67% → 77% +10BKN 67% → 77%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wizards 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -2.5
- ML BKN +115 / WSH -135
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- WSH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- WSH: Elo 50.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- WSH -124
- BKN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 114.5 – 117.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1327 | 1287 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −17 | −7 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +6 Elo | WSH 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30108.9 | Points scored | 113.523rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.3 | Points allowed | 129.730th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−14.3 | Margin | −16.230th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 106.528th of 30 |
| 30th of 30122.6 | Defense rating | 121.629th of 30 |
| 26th of 30100.6 | Pace | 104.93rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301–5 | Road vs home | 0–529th of 30 |
| 11th of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 15228th of 30 |
| 29th of 301327 | Elo rating | 128730th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–8 | 2–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | — | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 4–8 | 2–9 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 4–3 WSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.