Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- CJ McCollumPoints20
- Justin ChampagnieAssists4
- CJ McCollumRebounds3
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints24
- Jamal SheadAssists10
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–140
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–140
- Q40.1Raptors offensive team rebound110–140
- Q40.2Gradey Dick misses heave jump shot110–140
- Q41.0Will Riley lost ball turnover (Gradey Dick steals)110–140
- Q46.2Gradey Dick makes free throw 2 of 2110–140
- Q46.2Gradey Dick makes free throw 1 of 2110–139
- Q46.2Jamir Watkins personal foul110–138
- Q410.1Malaki Branham makes 25-foot three point shot (Will Riley assists)110–138
- Q415.5Garrett Temple bad pass (Will Riley steals)107–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:34Immanuel Quickley makes 26-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)WSH 2 – 7 TOR · TOR 88% → 91% +3TOR 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q17:07Cam Whitmore makes 25-foot three point shot (Bilal Coulibaly assists)WSH 9 – 13 TOR · WSH 8% → 10% +3WSH 8% → 10%+3 pts
- Q158.2Scottie Barnes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)WSH 20 – 29 TOR · TOR 91% → 93% +3TOR 91% → 93%+3 pts
- Q310:06CJ McCollum makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotWSH 55 – 64 TOR · WSH 5% → 8% +3WSH 5% → 8%+3 pts
- Q38:39Immanuel Quickley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)WSH 57 – 70 TOR · TOR 94% → 96% +3TOR 94% → 96%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -14.5
- ML WSH +600 / TOR -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -13.5
- TOR 90%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 89.6%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -636
- WSH +636 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 112.5 – 127.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1267 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | +84 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +374 Elo | TOR 89.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 86.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 87.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 86.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 119.910th of 30 |
| 30th of 30128.9 | Points allowed | 114.912th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−16.3 | Margin | +4.910th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.7 | Offense rating | 116.87th of 30 |
| 30th of 30122.1 | Defense rating | 112.014th of 30 |
| 5th of 30104.1 | Pace | 102.415th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301–7 | Road vs home | 3–216th of 30 |
| 8th of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 148221st of 30 |
| 30th of 301267 | Elo rating | 150317th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+84 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–11 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 3–9 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–6 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Mar 24TOR 112 @ WSH 104Picked WSH 54%Miss
- Mar 10WSH 104 @ TOR 119Picked TOR 69%Hit
- Mar 8WSH 118 @ TOR 117Picked TOR 62%Miss
- Jan 29TOR 106 @ WSH 82Picked TOR 67%Hit
- Apr 7WSH 122 @ TOR 130Picked WSH 50%Miss
- Mar 23TOR 109 @ WSH 112Picked WSH 72%Hit
- Dec 27TOR 132 @ WSH 102Picked TOR 60%Hit
- Nov 13WSH 107 @ TOR 111Picked TOR 72%Hit