Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints22
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists6
- Scottie BarnesRebounds9
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints24
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists9
- Andre DrummondRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–112
- Q410.2shot clock turnover121–112
- Q433.4RJ Barrett defensive rebound121–112
- Q436.8VJ Edgecombe misses 25-foot three point jumper121–112
- Q438.276ers Full timeout121–112
- Q438.2RJ Barrett makes dunk (Brandon Ingram assists)121–112
- Q442.7Andre Drummond personal foul119–112
- Q41:01Jakob Poeltl defensive rebound119–112
- Q41:04Quentin Grimes misses 26-foot three point jumper119–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:02Quentin Grimes makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)TOR 107 – 103 PHI · PHI 14% → 26% +12PHI 14% → 26%+12 pts
- Q45:23Quentin Grimes makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)TOR 109 – 106 PHI · PHI 16% → 30% +14PHI 16% → 30%+14 pts
- Q44:35Jakob Poeltl makes 2-foot layup (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 111 – 106 PHI · TOR 71% → 82% +10TOR 71% → 82%+10 pts
- Q43:23VJ Edgecombe makes two point shot (Tyrese Maxey assists)TOR 111 – 108 PHI · PHI 15% → 26% +11PHI 15% → 26%+11 pts
- Q43:01Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)TOR 114 – 108 PHI · TOR 75% → 90% +15TOR 75% → 90%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -2.5
- ML TOR -145 / PHI +125
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -3
- TOR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 61.2%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -133
- PHI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 118.0 – 115.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +81 | +25 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +79 Elo | TOR 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30119.8 | Points scored | 118.514th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 115.915th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+4.6 | Margin | +2.615th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.5 | Offense rating | 114.912th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 112.416th of 30 |
| 14th of 30102.6 | Pace | 102.316th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–3 | Road vs home | 5–212th of 30 |
| 21st of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 150514th of 30 |
| 18th of 301496 | Elo rating | 143623rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+81 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–6 | 10–3 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–5 PHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Nov 8TOR 120 @ PHI 130Picked PHI 64%Hit
- Mar 30TOR 127 @ PHI 109Picked TOR 68%Hit
- Mar 12PHI 105 @ TOR 118Picked TOR 57%Hit
- Feb 11TOR 106 @ PHI 103Picked PHI 81%Miss
- Oct 25PHI 107 @ TOR 115Picked PHI 65%Miss
- Mar 31PHI 135 @ TOR 120Picked PHI 58%Hit
- Dec 22TOR 111 @ PHI 121Picked PHI 78%Hit
- Nov 2TOR 99 @ PHI 114Picked PHI 66%Hit