LA Clippers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints28
- James HardenAssists5
- Ivica ZubacRebounds13
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints39
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists6
- Andre DrummondRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–110
- Q40.1Clippers offensive team rebound108–110
- Q40.1James Harden misses 22-foot three point jumper108–110
- Q41.9James Harden offensive rebound108–110
- Q46.3James Harden misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot108–110
- Q411.7Clippers Full timeout108–110
- Q411.7Ivica Zubac enters the game for Kris Dunn108–110
- Q411.7Tyrese Maxey lost ball turnover (Kris Dunn steals)108–110
- Q411.7Bogdan Bogdanovic enters the game for Nicolas Batum108–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:05Chris Paul makes 26-foot three pointerLAC 94 – 88 PHI · LAC 60% → 75% +14LAC 60% → 75%+14 pts
- Q44:18VJ Edgecombe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trendon Watford assists)LAC 97 – 98 PHI · PHI 41% → 61% +21PHI 41% → 61%+21 pts
- Q42:58Ivica Zubac makes tip shotLAC 101 – 102 PHI · LAC 24% → 38% +15LAC 24% → 38%+15 pts
- Q42:43Quentin Grimes makes 25-foot three pointer (Tyrese Maxey assists)LAC 101 – 105 PHI · PHI 62% → 83% +21PHI 62% → 83%+21 pts
- Q42:17Tyrese Maxey makes 28-foot three point jumper (VJ Edgecombe assists)LAC 104 – 108 PHI · PHI 63% → 85% +22PHI 63% → 85%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -5.5
- ML LAC +170 / PHI -200
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -3
- PHI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 62.4%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -180
- LAC +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 108.5 – 114.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −24 | +49 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +88 Elo | PHI 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30112.0 | Points scored | 119.311th of 30 |
| 16th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 116.615th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−4.8 | Margin | +2.714th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 115.210th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 112.615th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.7 | Pace | 102.614th of 30 |
| 23rd of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 21st of 301–4 | Road vs home | 4–212th of 30 |
| 5th of 301523 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 19th of 301493 | Elo rating | 143223rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–10 | 10–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 3–1 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.