LA Clippers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints37
- James HardenAssists8
- Ivica ZubacRebounds12
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints33
- Derrick WhiteAssists9
- Jaylen BrownRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–121
- Q40.0Clippers offensive team rebound118–121
- Q40.0James Harden misses 24-foot three point jumper118–121
- Q41.6Payton Pritchard makes free throw 2 of 2118–121
- Q41.6Bogdan Bogdanovic enters the game for Kobe Sanders118–120
- Q41.6Jordan Walsh enters the game for Anfernee Simons118–120
- Q41.6Payton Pritchard makes free throw 1 of 2118–120
- Q41.6James Harden personal take foul118–119
- Q42.0Kris Dunn enters the game for Bogdan Bogdanovic118–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32.4James Harden makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 85 – 90 BOS · LAC 15% → 24% +8LAC 15% → 24%+8 pts
- Q410:26Neemias Queta makes 3-foot layup (Derrick White assists)LAC 87 – 92 BOS · BOS 70% → 77% +7BOS 70% → 77%+7 pts
- Q49:50Jaylen Brown makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)LAC 87 – 95 BOS · BOS 78% → 86% +9BOS 78% → 86%+9 pts
- Q43:41James Harden makes 29-foot three point jumper (Kobe Sanders assists)LAC 103 – 108 BOS · LAC 5% → 15% +9LAC 5% → 15%+9 pts
- Q42:47Neemias Queta makes 3-foot layup (Derrick White assists)LAC 105 – 110 BOS · BOS 77% → 88% +11BOS 77% → 88%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -5.5
- ML LAC +180 / BOS -215
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5
- BOS 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 69.9%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -191
- LAC +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 106.5 – 112.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1611 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −38 | −53 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +147 Elo | BOS 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 61.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30111.5 | Points scored | 113.223rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 108.52nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−4.9 | Margin | +4.710th of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 114.415th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.8 | Defense rating | 109.65th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.8 | Pace | 99.129th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 20th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 3–317th of 30 |
| 10th of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 147127th of 30 |
| 17th of 301496 | Elo rating | 16113rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–10 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 0–3 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 1–3 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.