Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Kon KnueppelPoints24
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- Ryan KalkbrennerRebounds10
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints27
- Scottie BarnesAssists6
- Immanuel QuickleyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–110
- Q40.0(00:00) [Hornets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)108–110
- Q40.1Hornets offensive team rebound108–110
- Q40.2Scottie Barnes blocks Collin Sexton 's 6-foot two point shot108–110
- Q42.6Collin Sexton offensive rebound108–110
- Q42.6Miles Bridges misses 13-foot two point shot108–110
- Q47.5Sion James enters the game for Ryan Kalkbrenner108–110
- Q47.5Hornets Full timeout108–110
- Q47.5Hornets offensive team rebound108–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:12Collin Sexton makes 26-foot three point shot (Miles Bridges assists)CHA 103 – 104 TOR · CHA 17% → 36% +19CHA 17% → 36%+19 pts
- Q42:13Moussa Diabate makes 1-foot dunk (Miles Bridges assists)CHA 105 – 104 TOR · CHA 35% → 54% +19CHA 35% → 54%+19 pts
- Q41:41Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 108 – 106 TOR · CHA 35% → 67% +32CHA 35% → 67%+32 pts
- Q458.0Scottie Barnes makes 1-foot dunkCHA 108 – 108 TOR · TOR 26% → 54% +28TOR 26% → 54%+28 pts
- Q418.4RJ Barrett makes layup (Brandon Ingram assists)CHA 108 – 110 TOR · TOR 52% → 91% +39TOR 52% → 91%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -7.5
- ML CHA +260 / TOR -320
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -7
- TOR 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 75.4%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -274
- CHA +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 116.5 – 124.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1335 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +86 | +85 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +194 Elo | TOR 75.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 74.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 74.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 120.510th of 30 |
| 21st of 30120.5 | Points allowed | 115.713th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.3 | Margin | +4.88th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 117.35th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 112.615th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.9 | Pace | 102.514th of 30 |
| 23rd of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 21st of 301–5 | Road vs home | 2–219th of 30 |
| 24th of 301478 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 29th of 301335 | Elo rating | 149318th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+85 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–7 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–7 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–5 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.