Washington Wizards at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyshawn GeorgePoints23
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists7
- Kyshawn GeorgeRebounds7
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints32
- Julius RandleAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–120
- Q40.3Wizards offensive team rebound109–120
- Q40.3CJ McCollum misses heave jump shot109–120
- Q42.6shot clock turnover109–120
- Q426.6Timberwolves defensive team rebound109–120
- Q428.9Kyshawn George misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot109–120
- Q431.2Wizards Full timeout109–120
- Q431.2Julius Randle makes free throw 2 of 2109–120
- Q431.2Jaylen Clark enters the game for Mike Conley109–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:06Kyshawn George makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bilal Coulibaly assists)WSH 93 – 98 MIN · WSH 5% → 12% +6WSH 5% → 12%+6 pts
- Q46:45Donte DiVincenzo makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)WSH 93 – 101 MIN · MIN 89% → 95% +6MIN 89% → 95%+6 pts
- Q46:30Bub Carrington makes 24-foot three pointer (Bilal Coulibaly assists)WSH 96 – 101 MIN · WSH 5% → 11% +6WSH 5% → 11%+6 pts
- Q43:30Mike Conley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)WSH 101 – 109 MIN · MIN 91% → 97% +6MIN 91% → 97%+6 pts
- Q43:06Khris Middleton makes 23-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)WSH 104 – 109 MIN · WSH 2% → 9% +6WSH 2% → 9%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -16.5
- ML WSH +1000 / MIN -2000
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 91%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -14
- MIN 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 90.8%, market 91.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -1048
- WSH +1048 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 112.0 – 128.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1269 | 1601 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | +22 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +398 Elo | MIN 90.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 90.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 90.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 91.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 120.68th of 30 |
| 30th of 30129.6 | Points allowed | 114.411th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−16.7 | Margin | +6.26th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.3 | Offense rating | 117.05th of 30 |
| 30th of 30122.1 | Defense rating | 111.013th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.5 | Pace | 103.111th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 7–38th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301–6 | Road vs home | 4–317th of 30 |
| 11th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 147725th of 30 |
| 30th of 301269 | Elo rating | 16014th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–11 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 2–9 | 0–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–4 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–3 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.