Memphis Grizzlies at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points24
- Vince Williams Jr.Assists5
- Zach EdeyRebounds19
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints39
- James HardenAssists11
- Ivica ZubacRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–107
- Q40.1Clippers offensive team rebound112–107
- Q41.4James Harden misses 28-foot three point jumper112–107
- Q42.2Santi Aldama enters the game for Zach Edey112–107
- Q42.2Clippers Full timeout112–107
- Q42.2Jaylen Wells makes free throw 2 of 2112–107
- Q42.2Ivica Zubac enters the game for Kris Dunn111–107
- Q42.2Jaylen Wells makes free throw 1 of 2111–107
- Q42.2James Harden personal foul110–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:14Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (John Konchar assists)MEM 83 – 83 LAC · MEM 28% → 40% +12MEM 28% → 40%+12 pts
- Q48:10Kawhi Leonard makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotMEM 89 – 91 LAC · LAC 53% → 68% +14LAC 53% → 68%+14 pts
- Q45:15Ivica Zubac makes 1-foot dunk (James Harden assists)MEM 97 – 95 LAC · LAC 32% → 44% +12LAC 32% → 44%+12 pts
- Q45:04Cam Spencer makes 26-foot three point jumper (Santi Aldama assists)MEM 100 – 95 LAC · MEM 56% → 74% +18MEM 56% → 74%+18 pts
- Q44:18Jock Landale makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)MEM 103 – 95 LAC · MEM 76% → 89% +13MEM 76% → 89%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -6.5
- ML MEM +215 / LAC -260
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3
- LAC 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- LAC: Elo 61.6%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- LAC -228
- MEM +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 109.0 – 115.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −47 | +11 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +82 Elo | LAC 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 63.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.4 | Points scored | 112.225th of 30 |
| 18th of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 118.220th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−4.2 | Margin | −6.124th of 30 |
| 24th of 30109.6 | Offense rating | 112.820th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 118.927th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.8 | Pace | 98.030th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–823rd of 30 |
| 18th of 303–6 | Road vs home | 3–523rd of 30 |
| 4th of 301527 | Opponent Elo | 15169th of 30 |
| 17th of 301486 | Elo rating | 147520th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–12 | 5–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 2–10 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 7–12 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 1–6 LAC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.