LA Clippers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Ivica ZubacPoints33
- James HardenAssists6
- Ivica ZubacRebounds18
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints37
- Darius GarlandAssists8
- Evan MobleyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–120
- Q418.6Thomas Bryant defensive rebound105–120
- Q422.6Kobe Brown misses 23-foot three point jumper105–120
- Q436.0Yanic Konan Niederhauser defensive rebound105–120
- Q438.1Tyrese Proctor misses free throw 2 of 2105–120
- Q438.1Tyrese Proctor makes free throw 1 of 2105–120
- Q438.1Kobe Sanders shooting foul105–119
- Q448.5Cam Christie makes free throw 2 of 2105–119
- Q448.5Clippers offensive team rebound104–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:17Larry Nance Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dean Wade assists)LAC 40 – 45 CLE · CLE 72% → 78% +6CLE 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q310:18De'Andre Hunter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)LAC 58 – 64 CLE · CLE 73% → 80% +7CLE 73% → 80%+7 pts
- Q33:24Nicolas Batum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ivica Zubac assists)LAC 76 – 77 CLE · LAC 24% → 34% +9LAC 24% → 34%+9 pts
- Q33:06Donovan Mitchell makes driving layup (Tyrese Proctor assists)LAC 76 – 79 CLE · CLE 66% → 73% +7CLE 66% → 73%+7 pts
- Q31:27Dean Wade makes 23-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)LAC 78 – 86 CLE · CLE 79% → 86% +8CLE 79% → 86%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -7.5
- ML LAC +240 / CLE -290
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -6
- CLE 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 72.4%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- CLE -253
- LAC +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 111.0 – 118.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1603 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +30 | +7 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +167 Elo | CLE 72.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 72.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 119.910th of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.1 | Points allowed | 115.614th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.8 | Margin | +4.212th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 114.513th of 30 |
| 24th of 30117.5 | Defense rating | 110.56th of 30 |
| 30th of 3098.1 | Pace | 103.97th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–38th of 30 |
| 21st of 302–6 | Road vs home | 7–311th of 30 |
| 14th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149817th of 30 |
| 19th of 301489 | Elo rating | 16033rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–11 | 5–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 2–2 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.