Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Andrew NembhardPoints32
- Andrew NembhardAssists8
- Pascal SiakamRebounds9
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints32
- Darius GarlandAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–120
- Q40.0Cavaliers offensive team rebound109–120
- Q40.0Jaylon Tyson misses heave jump shot109–120
- Q42.8Jarace Walker makes 6-foot two point shot (Taelon Peter assists)109–120
- Q48.0Taelon Peter defensive rebound107–120
- Q410.9Tyrese Proctor misses driving floating jump shot107–120
- Q419.9Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes free throw 2 of 2107–120
- Q419.9Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes free throw 1 of 2106–120
- Q419.9Thomas Bryant shooting foul105–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:26De'Andre Hunter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylon Tyson assists)IND 20 – 22 CLE · CLE 82% → 86% +4CLE 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q24:41Bennedict Mathurin makes 29-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 48 – 47 CLE · IND 17% → 23% +6IND 17% → 23%+6 pts
- Q24:02Darius Garland makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)IND 48 – 52 CLE · CLE 81% → 86% +5CLE 81% → 86%+5 pts
- Q212.7Darius Garland makes 34-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 55 – 62 CLE · CLE 85% → 90% +5CLE 85% → 90%+5 pts
- Q310:03Jaylon Tyson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)IND 61 – 68 CLE · CLE 85% → 89% +5CLE 85% → 89%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -13.5
- ML IND +550 / CLE -900
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -9
- CLE 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 80.7%, market 85.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -585
- IND +585 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 114.5 – 128.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1599 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −90 | −8 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +248 Elo | CLE 80.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 83.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 82.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 85.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30110.1 | Points scored | 119.99th of 30 |
| 27th of 30123.1 | Points allowed | 116.115th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−12.9 | Margin | +3.811th of 30 |
| 29th of 30104.3 | Offense rating | 114.314th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.6 | Defense rating | 110.710th of 30 |
| 7th of 30104.1 | Pace | 104.15th of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–39th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–8 | Road vs home | 6–311th of 30 |
| 13th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 21st of 301470 | Elo rating | 15995th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−90 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–9 | 5–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 9–4 CLE in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.
- May 13IND 114 @ CLE 105PlayoffsPicked CLE 73%Miss
- May 11CLE 109 @ IND 129PlayoffsPicked CLE 66%Miss
- May 9CLE 126 @ IND 104PlayoffsPicked CLE 66%Hit
- May 6IND 120 @ CLE 119PlayoffsPicked CLE 67%Miss
- May 4IND 121 @ CLE 112PlayoffsPicked CLE 76%Miss
- Apr 13IND 126 @ CLE 118Picked IND 68%Hit
- Apr 10CLE 112 @ IND 114Picked IND 78%Hit
- Jan 14CLE 127 @ IND 117Picked CLE 74%Hit